April 2024

Housekeeping:

Slight change to Triad, Thanks to the person who asked why I hadn’t already included short term treasuries in the Triad strategies, took me a while to realize he was right.

GPM GPMv, it has now been 2 years since GPMv was born. Here is a recap of how it has performed over those 2 years.

Changed the word “Retire” to Conservative in the Model Portfolios.

Insight into the Model Portfolios. One of the reasons that the Bamboo Portfolios were created is that I think it helpful to hold a collection of different strategies, one of those strategies being buy and hold, Bamboo was created as an alternative to a 60/40 allocation which is used in some of the Model Portfolios with great success.


Dual Momentum Reporting Deck

DMS Bamboo Portfolio allocation Reporting Deck

Allocation worksheet

If you are a thrill seeker, I do still update the three “High Test
strategies just don’t post them in the main deck, High Test Reporting Deck

March 2024

Reminder of Bamboo Portfolio allocation strategies, post on the front page of the website currently.

Not an April Fools Joke - I was able to find annual data for Managed Futures from the Barclays CTA Index from 1980 through 1999, so I will be able to extend the Bamboo Portfolios back to 1980. It would be great to have monthly data for the Barclays CTA Index for that time period, if you have or have access to it, please reach out. I will just use the annual returns broken down to monthly increments for the mean time - hope to be able to put out the extended reports soon, anxious to see how they look!

I’ve been so busy with Bamboo, that I’m just going to ask that you look to the reports for all the fun data this month, almost no changes to investment strategies for April, GPMv has a minor increase in conviction and a change to Commodities, all else the same.



Full Dual Momentum Reporting Deck

New DMS Bamboo Portfolio allocation Reporting Deck

Allocation worksheet


Subscribe to the monthly emails (free) in order to get the Reporting Decks at the end of the month without delay.

February 2024

Please see the reporting decks linked below for full month, year, and far further back results.
It seems like the market is just continuing to melt up on the strength of AI stocks even through market breadth is narrowing Enjoy!
I’ve mentioned about a post coming, for a while now, on the DMS Allocation Strategies, it was delayed in part because I had to build a new model to house the strategies, and that is now largely complete. I have a few things I would like to add and some tweaks, but at least it is in a working state now. So for today, enjoy the very first DMS Allocation Strategies monthly Reporting Deck, and I’ll follow up soon with a post on the strategies.

Enjoy
Full Dual Momentum Reporting Deck
New DMS Allocation Strategies Reporting Deck
Allocation worksheet

If you are a thrill seeker, I do still update the three “High Test
strategies just don’t post them in the main deck,
High Test Reporting Deck

January 2024

Please see the reporting deck linked below for full month, year, and far further back results.
Good start to the year, I’ll have the Allocation Strategies post up in about a week.

Enjoy

Full reporting Deck
Allocation worksheet

If you are a thrill seeker, I do still update the three “High Test
strategies just don’t post them in the main deck, High Test Reporting Deck

December 2023

Please see the reporting deck linked below for full month, year, and far further back results.

I came to realize that sometimes the published results are updated after the fact, so I fully updated 2022 and 2023 monthly results in my database, not sure if it is dividend activity not captured in the month it took place or what. The changes weren’t large but I wanted to make sure I had the ‘final final’ numbers.

The fixed allocation DMS-4ETF, and I’ve got a variation of it that I think is worthwhile have been getting some of my attention, I owe info on this, I hope very soon.

Happy New Year to you, and a quick look back at the year in DMS Strategies 2023.

GPMv: The most conservative strategy had the lowest full year return of 2.83%. It also had the lowest drawdowns this past year, and on a percentage basis substantially lower than the 60/40 drawdown. However, compared to the 60/40 the returns for the year were paltry, knock this up to a great rebound year for bonds in 2023, and the Magnificent 7 driving the market this past year. 60/40 took advantage of both. Not that GPMv is really designed to target the 60/40, it is targeted at ultra low drawdowns and good long term gains.

Triad Strategies: These are billed as a better 60/40 for the future, but they had a misstep this year only returning roughly half what the 60/40 does. The strategy is not broken, the foundation of it is solid, it has had this sort of under performance in the past, it has a terrific long term record and is designed to be far more broad and adaptable than a 60/40 - it was not designed to take advantage of the Magnificent 7’s stellar year. Lick your wounds and continue on with Triad.

The Russell: This never leveraged strategy had a solid year coming in at just under 16% for the year with a low drawdown of just 6.45%. I still like this strategy very much.

Global Navigator+: The same 6.45% drawdown as The Russell, just slightly lower performance, this variation of GEM is still a winner, and always posed to take advantage when International equities outperform.

LT Gain Strategies: These strategies only invest in the Large Cap US when invested, as a result they both had very good years even with larger than the S&P Drawdowns.

Full reporting Deck

Allocation worksheet

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November 2023

Please see the reporting deck linked below for full month, year, and far further back results. I wish I could more easily get the results out for a month completed when the last day of the month is a weekday, but this will have to do (the next day) for now.

Thanks you, don’t forget you can see daily updates on the strategies with near real time results. I owe a writeup on the DMS-4ETF allocation which is doing well.

Basically, the strategies are back in equities after a very strong November, see the deck for all the deets.

Happy holidays!

Full reporting Deck

Allocation worksheet

October 2023

No changes in investments from yesterday’s Preliminary distribution, images below are from the Preliminary email. See link to the full deck just below for final numbers.

Quite a [difficult] year this is becoming.

Full reporting Deck.

Allocation worksheet.

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September 2023

Hi Randy,


What a terrible month September ended up being, and it actually triggered the majority of the strategies into Risk Off.

This has been a difficult year to be sure, and elections are around the corner. September is often a poor month in the markets and this year did not disappoint.

Here is the final September Reporting Deck.

Here is the Excel Allocation worksheet for October.

If you have any questions feel free to write me, that’s it for now.

:)

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August 2023

I had a crazy busy weekend working on a rental house, so an extremely short email with final results this time around.

Here is the final August Reporting Deck.

Here is the Excel Allocation worksheet for September.

If you have any questions feel free to write me, that’s it for now.

:)

July 2023

June was a fabulous month for the overall Market (at least as defined by the Russell 1000 (or the S&P 500). Ditto July, while not quite as big of gains as June, July continued the upward trend very nicely.
Dual Momentum Systems is a passion project, I do it because I love it, but more directly because I needed to find a better way to invest my own money. No small effort goes into the strategies, and reporting decks for all to see and use. I sincerely hope that you are using the information for your personal gain and insight. 

Thank you very much to the people who have made contributions which help pay for the hosting and subscription costs necessary to make this possible. 

I prefer to reach out once in a great while to ask for some help, I have no interest in charging an ongoing subscription. 

If you find the strategies and their presentation useful, please help out with a contribution that you feel is appropriate, it will be much appreciated, thank you. 

Thank you for your patronage. Your support can be directed here


I gave some thought to my personal portfolio allocations this month and made some adjustments. Previously I was allocating 25% to the Russell Midcap, and 15% to DBMF, a Managed Futures ETF; I decided to drop the buy and hold IWR and increase my DBMF to 20%. DBMF only has a few years of actual history, but I was able to find the Societe Generale CTA Index going back to 2000 which is the benchmark for DBMF. DBMF will deviate from its benchmark because it isn’t designed to follow it, but in general it is a decent proxy in order to go back to 2000 and see how it may look. Managed Futures really complement equities as an alternative, they move very differently and tend to do better when equities aren’t doing great. The long term average of the CTA index isn’t as high as my strategies, but that’s ok, they work nicely together smoothing out the returns and lessening the drawdowns a bit.

I am including a few charts down below the usual charts included in the month end email showing how these portfolios play out from 2000 forward.

Very little changes from July to August, outlined in the image below and in the Reporting Deck available here. The official month end numbers haven’t come out yet so I am publishing with what I have available and will update after the final numbers drop. I’ll update the Reporting Deck online at that time, shouldn’t affect any of the investments but want to use the final numbers to keep it clean.

Here is the allocation spreadsheet in case that helps working with multiple strategies. Just enter the percent allocated to the strategies, and the amount of money to allocate overall to the strategies, and it tells you which ETF’s that you should be holding in what quantities. Excel Allocation Workbook for August 2023.

Don’t forget that you can track the strategies any day of the month from this URL.

Cheers




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