Every strategy published on Dual Momentum Systems, plus the outside models tracked here for comparison. Each page sets out the rules the strategy follows and the results it has produced over its full published history. Figures are computed from monthly total returns, net of trading friction.
Lowkey is for the investor who wants to manage their own investments without trading frequently. It prioritizes long-term growth and protection against major market downturns - not avoiding every short-term decline. It is designed for investors who are comfortable riding out sharp dips and recoveries in pursuit of solid returns, with an emphasis on long-term capital gains tax rates from investment returns.
Market-like returns. Fraction of the drawdowns. That's Quiet Compounding. This draws on my ten years of developing tactical investment strategies. The combination of the strategies in this portfolio is built to deliver market-like returns over long time frames without the pain of large drawdowns. Credit regime positioning, macro regime positioning, breadth-driven protective momentum and rotational momentum each carry an equal share, and because they read different signals they rarely go defensive at the same moment. Together they produce a far less volatile portfolio with strong risk-adjusted returns. This Quiet Compounding Portfolio is a great anchor for a barbell strategy - and an ideal fit for any investor who wants strong returns without the volatility of a market portfolio.
Quiet Compounding 125 is Quiet Compounding with a little more horsepower. It keeps the same four engines at the same equal weights, with one change: the Catalyst block is Catalyst 200, which can use Smart Leverage on its technology position when conditions warrant. One block in four can reach 2x, so the portfolio's maximum notional exposure is 125%, and over the full record it has averaged about 106%. Leverage sits idle most of the time, deploys only after a market decline once momentum has turned back up, and has been on in roughly a quarter of all months.
Calculated Risk 150 is for the investor seeking high returns in a diversified portfolio, who is comfortable with a modest amount of leverage deployed opportunistically by Smart Leverage; a portfolio with low drawdowns, a low Ulcer Index, and terrific risk-adjusted returns (Ulcer Performance Index).
If you want to position yourself for higher returns and get your risk on, Calculated Risk 185 is for the investor seeking high returns and low drawdowns, who is willing to deploy leverage with the Smart Leverage method, the investor who wants to moderate a little, the investor who is willing to sacrifice a bit of potential returns for terrifically low drawdowns and a lower Ulcer Index.
If you want to position yourself for higher returns and get your risk on, the Calculated Risk 250 is for the investor seeking high returns and low drawdowns, who is willing to deploy high leverage with the 3X Smart Leverage method, the investor who wants to moderate a little, the investor who is willing to sacrifice a bit of potential returns for terrifically low drawdowns and a lower Ulcer Index.
Catalyst is a macro-regime strategy that decides what to own from where the economy sits on two axes: whether growth is trending up or down, and whether inflation pressure is elevated, and if so whether it is still building. Growth is read from U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) against their eight-month simple moving average: above the average is growth up, below it is growth down. Inflation is read directly from the bond market, using the five-year breakeven rate against the Fed's 2% target for the level, and the change in that rate over three months for the direction.
Catalyst 200 is Catalyst with 2x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk on its technology position. It reads the same two macro signals, growth from U.S. large cap against its eight-month average and inflation pressure from the five-year breakeven rate, and lands in the same six regimes: energy, technology or a blend of the two when growth is up, and gold, commodities, managed futures or tail-risk convexity when it is down.
Catalyst 300 is the most aggressive version of Catalyst, using 3x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk on its technology position. The macro engine is unchanged: growth and inflation readings place the economy in one of six regimes, from energy in reflation and technology in goldilocks through to gold, commodities and managed futures in stagflation and tail-risk convexity in disinflation.
Triad is a three-sleeve, momentum-driven allocation strategy designed as a forward-looking alternative to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Each sleeve operates independently, combining dual momentum and autocorrelation signals to dynamically allocate across diversified return streams. The strategy uses relative strength to gain exposure to real assets (gold or commodities), U.S. large-cap equities, and a relative strength sleeve between Mid-Cap Value, International equities, Equities Long/Short, or Managed Futures. When momentum signals are unfavorable, capital is defensively allocated to IEF, an intermediate duration Treasury ETF, as the Risk Off allocation by sleeve. The one exception is the U.S. large-cap sleeve, which holds EDV, an extended duration Treasury ETF, for its first Risk Off month before moving to IEF. By blending uncorrelated sleeves with adaptive risk management, Triad seeks to enhance returns while maintaining strong downside protection. Triad uses no leverage.
Triad 135 is Triad with 2x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk on a single sleeve. Its three independent sleeves are unchanged: real assets (gold or commodities), U.S. large cap, and a relative strength sleeve choosing among mid-cap value, international equities, long/short equity and managed futures, each stepping into Treasuries when its own momentum fails.
Triad 170 is Triad with 3x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk on its U.S. large cap sleeve. Real assets, U.S. large cap, and the relative strength sleeve still run independently, each with its own momentum test and its own step into Treasuries.
Carrier is a credit-regime strategy that stays invested in a diversified growth portfolio and steps aside only when the high yield bond market signals real stress. Each month it reads the spread investors demand to hold high yield bonds over Treasuries. When that spread is at or above 6.5% and still near its recent high, Carrier moves fully into intermediate Treasuries (IEF). As soon as the spread has fallen two points from its six-month high, Carrier returns to its growth portfolio, even if the spread is still elevated. When invested, Carrier holds U.S. large cap (IWB) 50%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20%, managed futures (DBMF) 15% and long/short equity (CLSE) 15%, rebalanced every January or when a holding drifts ten points from target. Because credit stress is rare, Carrier is invested most of the time and changes position less than once a year on average. Like every DMS strategy, Carrier's overriding goal is strong risk-adjusted performance; its second mandate is for the majority of its gains to be long-term capital gains. Carrier does not use any leverage.
Carrier 170 is Carrier with 2x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk. Most of the time it holds exactly what Carrier holds: U.S. large cap (IWB), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), managed futures (DBMF) and long/short equity (CLSE) while credit markets are calm, and intermediate Treasuries (IEF) when the high yield spread signals real stress.
Carrier 240 is the most aggressive version of Carrier, using 3x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk. Its signal never changes: invested in U.S. large cap (IWB), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), managed futures (DBMF) and long/short equity (CLSE) while credit markets are calm, and fully in intermediate Treasuries (IEF) when the high yield spread signals real stress.
Global Navigator is a disciplined dual momentum strategy. When Risk-On, it allocates between U.S. and International equities based on relative strength, selecting whichever exhibits superior momentum - U.S. large cap (IWB) at 100%, or a 50/50 split allocation between the unhedged and USD-hedged international equities (VXUS and DBEF), this splits the currency exposure rather than taking a view on the dollar. When neither is beating cash, the strategy is Risk-Off and steps out of equities entirely.
Global Navigator 200 is Global Navigator with 2x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk. Its dual momentum core is unchanged: when Risk-On it holds U.S. large cap (IWB) or international equities (VXUS and DBEF), whichever is stronger, and when neither beats cash the Treasury Duration Limiter decides between long- and short-duration Treasuries.
Global Navigator 300 is the most aggressive version of Global Navigator. It uses 3x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk on the equity side, and a 3x Treasury fund on the defensive side.
GPMv is a conservative, low-volatility tactical asset allocation strategy designed as a superior, adaptable alternative to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. It is a variant of the Generalized Protective Momentum (GPM) strategy by JW Keuning and Wouter Keller, with five stylistic modifications that open the universe slightly to capture additional positive returns while preserving the core protective nature. GPMv blends one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month momentum with ETF performance correlations to dynamically scale into and out of Risk-On assets (11 ETFs across equities, commodities, and real assets) and Safety assets of medium term treasuries or short term treasuries. The strategy prioritizes low drawdowns. Rebalancing follows the model rather than the calendar: GPMv trades when its target allocation changes, so months in which the signals ask for nothing new require no trades at all.
LT Gain is a single-asset momentum strategy that holds U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) for as long as their trailing momentum beats cash, and steps entirely out of equities when it does not. There is no relative momentum step and no international sleeve - the only question each month is whether to be invested at all. When Risk-Off, the Treasury Duration Limiter decides what kind of safety to hold: long-duration Treasuries while long duration is still working, or short duration for the rest of that defensive stretch once long duration turns against it. LT Gain is always 100% in a single ETF. LT Gain does not use any leverage. The goal is good long term gain results.
LT Gain 200 is LT Gain with 2x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk. The core is LT Gain's single question each month: is U.S. large cap (IWB) beating cash? If yes it holds IWB, if not it steps into Treasuries chosen by the Treasury Duration Limiter.
LT Gain 300 is the most aggressive version of LT Gain. It uses 3x Smart Leverage, an opportunistic use of leverage in order to enhance gain with reasonable risk on offense and a 3x Treasury fund on defense.
Alpha by Sector is a disciplined high confidence equity strategy which holds between 9–18 market-leading stocks across multiple sectors - companies that have broken out to, or are very near new 52-week highs on volume, with rising earnings estimates, accelerating revenue, and a clear forward catalyst. Each position must clear a 5-factor scoring threshold to enter and re-earn its place at every monthly review, while four market-health canaries (credit spreads, breadth, trend, and volatility) govern when to tighten exposure or shift to a defensive posture. The canary indicators are not indented to avoid loss, but limit damage in a down market. Investing in individual equities with TAA-like structure and canary indicators.
Permanent Portfolio DMS is a modernized version of Harry Browne's 1981 Permanent Portfolio, and it shows how simplicity beats complexity. Browne's philosophy - four quadrants covering prosperity, recession, inflation, and crisis - requires no forecasting and no change of positions, just annual rebalancing.
Family Office Blueprint is a diversified multi-asset strategy designed to replicate how the world’s largest family offices allocate capital, using liquid daily-traded ETFs instead of private funds, lockups, or institutional minimums. It spreads exposure across public equities, hedge fund replication, private equity proxies, private credit, fixed income, and cash, with each sleeve serving a distinct role in long-term compounding and portfolio resilience. The strategy is built around the idea that true diversification comes from owning asset classes with different return drivers, not simply mixing stocks and bonds, and it reflects current family office tilts toward private credit, alternative diversifiers, and elevated dry powder while reducing dependence on traditional 60/40 construction.
Market-like returns. Fraction of the drawdowns. U-Quiet Compounding is the UCITS version of Quiet Compounding, built for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. Credit regime positioning, macro regime positioning, breadth-driven protective momentum and rotational momentum each carry an equal share, and because they read different signals they rarely go defensive at the same moment. Together they produce a far less volatile portfolio with strong risk-adjusted returns.
U-Quiet Compounding 125 is the UCITS version of Quiet Compounding 125, built for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It keeps the same four engines at the same equal weights, each in its UCITS version, with one block able to use leverage: the Catalyst block is U-Catalyst 200, which can use Smart Leverage on its technology position through a 2x Nasdaq 100 UCITS fund when conditions warrant. One block in four can reach 2x, so the portfolio's maximum notional exposure is 125%, and over the full record it has averaged about 106%. Leverage sits idle most of the time and has been on in roughly a quarter of all months.
U-Lowkey is the UCITS version of Lowkey, for investors outside the US who want to manage their own investments without trading often and who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. Like Lowkey, it pairs a growth engine with an all-weather ballast, here 60% and 40%, reset once a year in January.
U-Carrier is the UCITS version of Carrier, built for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows Carrier's credit-regime rules exactly: each month it reads the spread investors demand to hold high yield bonds over Treasuries, moves fully into intermediate Treasuries (CBU0) when that spread is at or above 6.5% and still near its recent high, and returns to its growth portfolio once the spread has fallen two points from its six-month high. The one change is the growth portfolio. Carrier's long/short equity fund has no UCITS equivalent, so U-Carrier holds the S&P 500 (CSPX) 55%, the Nasdaq 100 (CNDX) 20% and managed futures (DBMF) 25%, every one a UCITS fund listed in London. U-Carrier does not use any leverage.
U-Carrier 170 is U-Carrier with Smart Leverage, the UCITS version of Carrier 170 for investors outside the US. Most of the time it holds exactly what U-Carrier holds: the S&P 500 (CSPX), the Nasdaq 100 (CNDX) and managed futures (DBMF) when credit markets are calm, and intermediate Treasuries (CBU0) when the high yield spread signals stress.
U-Global Navigator is the UCITS version of Global Navigator, built for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It is a disciplined dual momentum strategy. When Risk On, it holds whichever of U.S. large cap (S&P 500, CSPX) or international equities (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, VXUA) has the stronger momentum, 100% in one or the other. When neither is beating cash, it is Risk Off and steps out of equities entirely, holding long-duration Treasuries (DTLA) while long duration is still working and short-term Treasuries (IB01) once it is not. Two holdings differ from Global Navigator because they have no UCITS equivalent: international is held in a single unhedged fund rather than split with a currency-hedged one, and the extended-duration Treasury fund is replaced by long Treasuries. U-Global Navigator does not use any leverage.
U-Global Navigator 200 is U-Global Navigator with Smart Leverage, the UCITS version of Global Navigator 200 for investors outside the US. Its dual momentum core is unchanged: when Risk On it holds U.S. large cap (CSPX) or international equities (VXUA), whichever is stronger, and when neither beats cash it steps into long Treasuries (DTLA) and then short-term Treasuries (IB01).
U-Triad is the UCITS version of Triad, built for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It is a three-sleeve, momentum-driven allocation strategy designed as an alternative to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Each sleeve works independently: real assets (gold or commodities), U.S. large cap (the S&P 500, CSPX), and a relative strength sleeve choosing between international equities, U.S. mid cap and managed futures. When a sleeve's momentum signal fails, that sleeve moves to intermediate Treasuries (CBU0); the U.S. large cap sleeve holds long Treasuries (DTLA) for its first defensive month. Triad's long/short equity and mid-cap value funds have no UCITS equivalents, so U-Triad's third sleeve chooses among three candidates rather than four, with U.S. mid cap in place of mid-cap value. Gold is held through a physical gold ETC. U-Triad uses no leverage.
U-Triad 135 is U-Triad with Smart Leverage on a single sleeve, the UCITS version of Triad 135 for investors outside the US. Its three independent sleeves are unchanged: real assets (gold through a physical gold ETC, or commodities), U.S. large cap, and a relative strength sleeve choosing among international equities, U.S. mid cap and managed futures, each stepping into Treasuries when its own momentum fails.
U-Catalyst is the UCITS version of Catalyst, built for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It is a macro-regime strategy that decides what to own from where the economy sits on two axes: whether growth is trending up or down, read from U.S. large cap against its eight-month average, and whether inflation pressure is elevated, and if so whether it is still building, read from the five-year breakeven inflation rate.
U-Catalyst 200 is U-Catalyst with Smart Leverage on its technology position, the UCITS version of Catalyst 200 for investors outside the US. It reads the same two macro signals, growth from U.S. large cap against its eight-month average and inflation pressure from the five-year breakeven rate, and lands in the same six regimes: energy, technology or a blend of the two when growth is up, and gold, commodities, managed futures or intermediate Treasuries when it is down.
U-GPMv is the UCITS version of GPMv, built for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows GPMv's rules exactly: a conservative, low-volatility tactical allocation strategy that blends one-, three-, six- and twelve-month momentum with correlations across eleven risk assets to scale in and out of equities, commodities, real assets and bonds, and moves to intermediate or short-term Treasuries for safety. Every GPMv holding has a UCITS fund or a close stand-in, so nothing in the rules changes; only the funds are different. The Pacific position is held as a pair of UCITS funds, Japan and Asia Pacific ex Japan, and gold is held through a physical gold ETC. Rebalancing follows the model rather than the calendar.
HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) is Keller & Keuning's blend of dual momentum and breadth-based canary signaling across a global 8-asset opportunity set spanning equities, real estate, and bonds. A single "canary" asset acts as an early-warning gauge for market stress: when its momentum turns negative, HAA moves the entire portfolio to whichever defensive asset looks strongest. When the canary is healthy, HAA ranks the offensive universe by momentum and holds an equal-weighted basket of the four strongest assets — swapping out any pick that has itself lost momentum for a defensive holding. The result is a strategy that stays broadly invested during calm markets but reacts decisively at the first sign of trouble.
BAA (Bold Asset Allocation), Balanced is Keller & Keuning's most ambitious model, pulling together the best ideas from three of their earlier strategies into a single set of rules. Four "canary" assets stand in for the health of global markets: U.S. large caps, developed international stocks, emerging markets, and U.S. aggregate bonds. Every one of them has to show positive momentum for BAA to take risk. If even a single canary weakens, the entire portfolio moves to the defensive side. That is a deliberately jumpy trigger, and it is meant to be: BAA would rather be early and wrong than late and hurt, and historically it has spent roughly 60% of months positioned defensively.
BAA (Bold Asset Allocation), Aggressive is the same machinery as BAA Balanced, dialled to its extreme. It watches the same four "canary" assets, and every one of them still has to show positive momentum before the strategy will take any risk at all. When a canary weakens, it retreats to the same seven-asset defensive universe, takes the three strongest, and swaps out any that cannot outrun T-bills. Roughly 60% of months are spent on that defensive footing.
DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) is Keller & Keuning's canary-driven successor to their earlier momentum work, built around a 12-asset global universe and a dedicated pair of "canary" assets whose health determines how defensively the portfolio should be positioned. When both canaries show negative momentum, DAA moves entirely to its strongest bond holding. When just one canary is struggling, the portfolio splits — half into its top-ranked equities and diversifiers, half into safety. When both canaries are healthy, DAA commits fully to an equal-weighted basket of its strongest risk assets. By using breadth across two independent stress signals rather than a single switch, DAA aims to distinguish a genuine broad-based downturn from an isolated pocket of weakness.
VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation), Aggressive is the strategy that started Keller & Keuning's canary lineage, and the simplest of the family to describe. It watches four assets: U.S. large caps, developed international stocks, emerging markets, and U.S. aggregate bonds. Each month it scores all four on the same weighted momentum measure, giving the most recent month the heaviest vote. If every one of the four is positive, the strategy puts the entire portfolio into whichever is strongest. If even one of the four is negative, it steps aside entirely and moves everything into the best of three defensive assets: corporate bonds, intermediate Treasuries, or short Treasuries.
GPM (Generalized Protective Momentum) is Keller & Keuning's momentum model across a 12-asset global universe of equities, real assets, and bonds, and it's the strategy GPMv was built from. GPM's key refinement over simpler momentum models is that it scores each asset not just on momentum, but on how correlated that asset's returns are to the broader risk universe — an asset with strong momentum that's also highly correlated with everything else gets discounted, while a strong performer that moves independently is rewarded. The strategy concentrates conviction in its three highest-scoring assets rather than spreading across many holdings, and scales its defensive allocation to short or intermediate Treasuries based on the breadth of positive-momentum assets across the universe — the fewer assets in an uptrend, the larger the defensive cushion. This correlation-aware scoring is what "generalized" refers to in the name: a more adaptive evolution of protective momentum investing.
PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) is Keller & Keuning's answer to a common tactical allocation weakness: strategies that stay fully invested until a signal flips, then move all at once. Rather than an all-or-nothing switch, PAA scales gradually into cash as market breadth deteriorates — the more of its 12-asset universe that loses momentum, the larger the defensive cushion becomes, well before a full-blown downturn. Within its risk-on sleeve, PAA ranks assets by momentum and holds the six strongest, each still required to show its own positive trend to earn a place in the portfolio. Its defensive capital splits between two safety assets, always favoring whichever offers the stronger "crisis alpha" at the time. This gradual, breadth-driven approach to risk reduction is what gives Protective Asset Allocation its name — protection that scales with the danger rather than arriving all at once.
LAA (Lethargic Asset Allocation) is Wouter Keller's 2019 strategy that is three-quarters buy-and-hold and one-quarter tactical. It permanently holds U.S. large cap value (IWD), gold (SGOL) and intermediate Treasuries (IEF), 25% each, in the spirit of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio. The last 25% holds the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) most of the time and moves to short-term Treasuries (SHY) only when two warnings agree: the U.S. unemployment rate is above its 12-month average, and the S&P 500 is below its 10-month average. Because the economic half of that test moves slowly, LAA changes position less than once a year on average and rebalances only when the signal changes or in January, which is where the "lethargic" name comes from.
GEM (Global Equities Momentum) is Gary Antonacci's original dual momentum model - the strategy that gave the entire dual momentum framework its name, and a foundational inspiration for DMS. Each month, GEM compares U.S. equities against International equities and holds whichever shows superior 12-month relative strength. But before committing to either, the strategy applies an absolute momentum test: if neither U.S. nor International equities is outperforming T-bills, GEM sidesteps stocks entirely and shifts into aggregate bonds for safety. This simple two-layer approach - relative strength paired with a trend-following safety check - became one of the most studied tactical allocation models ever published, prized for capturing global equity growth while sitting out prolonged bear markets.
CDM (Composite Dual Momentum) extends Gary Antonacci's original dual momentum framework across four independent, equal-weighted sleeves - equities, credit, real estate, and economic stress - rather than relying on a single equity decision. Each sleeve applies the same dual momentum logic: relative strength picks the stronger of two related assets, while an absolute momentum test versus T-bills determines whether that sleeve should be invested at all or held in cash. By spreading risk across four uncorrelated return streams instead of one, CDM aims to smooth returns and reduce reliance on any single market regime, trading some of GEM's simplicity for broader diversification.
Defense First is Tom Carlson's 2025 strategy that reverses the usual order of tactical allocation: defense first, offense second. Each month it ranks four defensive assets, each tied to a different kind of market stress: long Treasuries (TLT), gold (SGOL), commodities (PDBC) and the US dollar (UUP). It holds them at 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% by the plain average of their 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns. Any defensive asset that is not beating Treasury bills hands its slot to the S&P 500 (VOO). Stock exposure is therefore whatever the defensive assets leave behind, anywhere from none to all of the portfolio, and about a third on average.
GTAA Agg3 is the concentrated three-slot version of Meb Faber's Global Tactical Asset Allocation, drawn from the paper that did more than any other to put tactical asset allocation in front of ordinary investors. Each month it ranks thirteen global asset classes - US value and momentum equities, small caps, international and emerging market stocks, Treasuries across the curve, corporate and international bonds, commodities, gold, and real estate - by the plain average of their 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns, then buys the top three at a third of the portfolio apiece. Each pick still has to clear one more hurdle: if it sits below its 10-month moving average, that slot goes to cash instead of the asset. Relative momentum does most of the work, since the strongest names in a broad basket are usually already trending higher, and the moving average acts as the brake for the times they are not. The price of holding only three slots is real concentration, and the portfolio can end up entirely in one category.
Permanent Portfolio is Harry Browne's 1981 original, and it is the simplest allocation on this site: four assets, 25% each, no signals, no forecasts, nothing to decide. Stocks for prosperity, long-term Treasuries for deflation, gold for inflation, and cash for the tight-money squeeze. Browne's argument was that those four regimes cover everything the economy can do, that nobody can reliably say which is coming next, and that holding one asset tuned to each is the only rational response to that ignorance.
All Weather is Ray Dalio's answer to a question most portfolios never ask: what do you hold when you have no idea what the economy will do next? His observation is that every asset class has an environment it thrives in and an environment it suffers in. Growth surprises lift stocks. Deflation and falling growth lift long-term bonds. Inflation lifts gold and commodities. Since nobody can reliably call which environment is arriving, the sensible response is to own something tuned to each and stop guessing.
Golden Butterfly, designed by Tyler at Portfolio Charts, takes the Permanent Portfolio's economic risk parity idea and tilts it toward prosperity. It shares four of its five assets with the Permanent Portfolio - large-cap stocks, long-term treasuries, short-term treasuries, and gold - but splits what would be a single equity sleeve into two: large-cap blend alongside small-cap value. The result pairs the Permanent Portfolio's famous consistency with meaningfully better long-run growth.
Profit Farmer w/Gold is a version of Profit Farmer with 3x leveraged gold (SHNY) added as a sixth candidate. Each month it ranks six 3x leveraged ETFs by their trailing two-month return: emerging markets (EDC), U.S. small caps (URTY), the Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ), long-term Treasuries (TMF), U.S. real estate (DRN) and gold (SHNY). It holds the top three. Position sizes come from Minimum Variance optimization on a daily-return covariance matrix, so the three holdings are rarely equal, and a pick that adds risk without adding diversification can be sized to zero.
Profit Farmer is a momentum-driven Adaptive Allocation strategy that rotates monthly among a small basket of 3x leveraged ETFs. Each month it ranks the universe by trailing two-month return, selects the strongest three, and weights them using Minimum Variance optimization - sizing each position to minimize the combined portfolio's expected volatility rather than splitting capital evenly. The optimizer works from a real daily-return covariance matrix rather than a simple inverse-volatility rule, which means the three holdings are rarely equal-sized and a selected asset can legitimately be sized to zero if it adds risk without adding diversification. The base universe is emerging markets (EDC), U.S. small cap (URTY), Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ), long-term Treasuries (TMF), and U.S. real estate (DRN), each 3x leveraged.
U-HAA - Hybrid Asset Allocation is the UCITS version of HAA - Hybrid Asset Allocation, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows HAA's rules exactly: a single canary asset (U.S. TIPS) as its warning signal, the four strongest of eight offensive assets when the canary is healthy, and the stronger of intermediate Treasuries or cash when it is not. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-BAA - Bold Asset Allocation - Balanced is the UCITS version of BAA - Bold Asset Allocation - Balanced, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows BAA Balanced's rules exactly: four canary assets that must all show positive momentum before it takes risk, the six strongest of twelve offensive assets when they do, and the three strongest defensive assets (each required to beat T-bills) when they do not. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-BAA - Bold Asset Allocation - Aggressive is the UCITS version of BAA - Bold Asset Allocation - Aggressive, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows BAA Aggressive's rules exactly: the same four canaries and defensive playbook as BAA Balanced, but when the canaries are healthy it puts the whole portfolio into the single strongest of four offensive assets. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-DAA - Defensive Asset Allocation is the UCITS version of DAA - Defensive Asset Allocation, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows DAA's rules exactly: two canary assets (emerging markets and U.S. aggregate bonds): both healthy puts the portfolio fully into its strongest risk assets, one weak splits it half and half, and both weak moves it entirely to the strongest bond holding. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-VAA - Vigilant Asset Allocation - Aggressive is the UCITS version of VAA - Vigilant Asset Allocation - Aggressive, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows VAA Aggressive's rules exactly: four offensive assets that must all show positive momentum, the single strongest of them when they do, and the best of three defensive assets when any one of them does not. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
Read how U-VAA - Vigilant Asset Allocation - Aggressive works
U-GPM - Generalized Protective Momentum is the UCITS version of GPM - Generalized Protective Momentum, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows GPM's rules exactly: momentum scored together with each asset's correlation to the rest of the universe, the three highest scorers held, and a defensive share in short or intermediate Treasuries that grows as fewer assets are in an uptrend. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-PAA - Protective Asset Allocation is the UCITS version of PAA - Protective Asset Allocation, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows PAA's rules exactly: the six strongest of twelve risk assets, each still required to show its own positive trend, with a defensive share in short or intermediate Treasuries that grows step by step as market breadth weakens. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-LAA - Lethargic Asset Allocation is the UCITS version of LAA - Lethargic Asset Allocation, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows LAA's rules exactly: U.S. large cap value, gold and intermediate Treasuries held permanently at 25% each, plus a 25% sleeve that holds the Nasdaq 100 unless both the U.S. unemployment trend and the S&P 500 trend turn negative, when it moves to short Treasuries. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-Global Equities Momentum is the UCITS version of Global Equities Momentum, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows GEM's rules exactly: U.S. stocks or international stocks, whichever has the stronger 12-month return, provided it beats T-bills; otherwise U.S. aggregate bonds. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-Composite Dual Momentum is the UCITS version of Composite Dual Momentum, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows CDM's rules exactly: four equal sleeves (equities, credit, real estate and economic stress), each picking the stronger of two related assets by 12-month return, or cash when neither beats T-bills. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-GTAA Agg3 is the UCITS version of GTAA Agg3, Meb Faber's concentrated three-slot Global Tactical Asset Allocation, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. Each month it ranks twelve global asset classes by the average of their 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns and buys the top three at a third each, sending any pick that sits below its 10-month moving average to cash. One change from the original: international government bonds are left out, because no UCITS fund holds the same unhedged exposure. The other twelve assets, and every rule, are unchanged.
U-Permanent Portfolio is the UCITS version of Permanent Portfolio, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows Permanent Portfolio's rules exactly: U.S. stocks, long Treasuries, gold and cash at 25% each, reset every January and whenever a sleeve drifts below 15% or above 35%. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-All Weather is the UCITS version of All Weather, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows All Weather's rules exactly: 30% U.S. stocks, 40% long Treasuries, 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7.5% gold and 7.5% commodities, reset every January. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-Golden Butterfly is the UCITS version of Golden Butterfly, for investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs. It follows Golden Butterfly's rules exactly: U.S. large cap stocks, U.S. small cap value stocks, long Treasuries, short Treasuries and gold at 20% each, reset every January. Every fund it can hold has a UCITS equivalent, with gold held through a physical gold ETC, so nothing in the rules changes and the backtest matches the original month for month. Only the funds are different.
U-Defense First brings Tom Carlson's defense-first tactical strategy to investors outside the US who buy UCITS funds and ETCs rather than US-listed ETFs. Every month it scores long Treasuries, gold, commodities and the US dollar on their 1, 3, 6 and 12-month momentum and holds them at 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% by rank, while any of the four that trails Treasury bills hands its slot to the S&P 500. One change from the original: no UCITS fund tracks the US Dollar Index, so a winning dollar slot is held as US dollar T-bills instead. The ranking and every other rule are untouched.
