Investment Strategies

Quiet Compounding

Market-like returns. Fraction of the drawdowns. That's Quiet Compounding. This draws on my ten years of developing tactical investment strategies. The combination of the strategies in this portfolio deliver market-like returns over long time frames without the pain from large drawdowns. Rotational momentum, dual momentum, and macro regime positioning each carry a share, and because they read different signals they rarely go defensive at the same moment. Together they produce a far less volatile portfolio with very strong risk-adjusted returns. This Quiet Compounding Portfolio is a great anchor for a barbell strategy - and an ideal fit for any investor who wants strong returns without the volatility of a market portfolio.

CAGR

15.3%

Max drawdown

-7.8%

MAR

1.95

Since

2003

Read how Quiet Compounding works

Calculated Risk 185

If you want to position yourself for higher returns and get your risk on, Calculated Risk 185 is for the investor seeking high returns and low drawdowns, who is willing to deploy leverage with the Smart Leverage method, the investor who wants to moderate a little, the investor who is willing to sacrifice a bit of potential returns for terrifically low drawdowns and a lower Ulcer Index.

CAGR

24.1%

Max drawdown

-14.8%

MAR

1.63

Since

2003

Read how Calculated Risk 185 works

Calculated Risk 250

If you want to position yourself for higher returns and get your risk on, the Calculated Risk 250 is for the investor seeking high returns and low drawdowns, who is willing to deploy high leverage with the 3X Smart Leverage method, the investor who wants to moderate a little, the investor who is willing to sacrifice a bit of potential returns for terrifically low drawdowns and a lower Ulcer Index.

CAGR

27.8%

Max drawdown

-21.3%

MAR

1.31

Since

2003

Read how Calculated Risk 250 works

Catalyst

Catalyst is a macro-regime strategy that decides what to own from where the economy sits on two axes: whether growth is trending up or down, and whether inflation pressure is elevated, and if so whether it is still building. Growth is read from U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) against their eight-month simple moving average: above the average is growth up, below it is growth down. Inflation is read directly from the bond market, using the five-year breakeven rate against the Fed's 2% target for the level, and the change in that rate over three months for the direction.

CAGR

24.0%

Max drawdown

-14.4%

MAR

1.67

Since

2003

Read how Catalyst works

Catalyst 200

Catalyst is a macro-regime strategy that decides what to own from where the economy sits on two axes: whether growth is trending up or down, and whether inflation pressure is elevated, and if so whether it is still building. Growth is read from U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) against their eight-month simple moving average: above the average is growth up, below it is growth down. Inflation is read directly from the bond market, using the five-year breakeven rate against the Fed's 2% target for the level, and the change in that rate over three months for the direction.

CAGR

32.2%

Max drawdown

-17.9%

MAR

1.79

Since

2003

Read how Catalyst 200 works

Catalyst 300

Catalyst is a macro-regime strategy that decides what to own from where the economy sits on two axes: whether growth is trending up or down, and whether inflation pressure is elevated, and if so whether it is still building. Growth is read from U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) against their eight-month simple moving average: above the average is growth up, below it is growth down. Inflation is read directly from the bond market, using the five-year breakeven rate against the Fed's 2% target for the level, and the change in that rate over three months for the direction.

CAGR

40.2%

Max drawdown

-27.2%

MAR

1.48

Since

2003

Read how Catalyst 300 works

Triad

Triad is a three-sleeve, momentum-driven allocation strategy designed as a forward-looking alternative to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Each sleeve operates independently, combining dual momentum and autocorrelation signals to dynamically allocate across diversified return streams. The strategy uses relative strength to gain exposure to real assets (gold or commodities), U.S. large-cap equities, and a relative strength sleeve between Mid-Cap Value, International equities, Equities Long/Short, or Managed Futures. When momentum signals are unfavorable, capital is defensively allocated to IEF, an intermediate duration Treasury ETF, as the Risk Off allocation by sleeve. By blending uncorrelated sleeves with adaptive risk management, Triad seeks to enhance returns while maintaining strong downside protection. Triad uses no leverage.

CAGR

14.9%

Max drawdown

-13.8%

MAR

1.08

Since

1980

Read how Triad works

Triad 135

Triad is a three-sleeve, momentum-driven allocation strategy designed as a forward-looking alternative to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Each sleeve operates independently, combining dual momentum and autocorrelation signals to dynamically allocate across diversified return streams. The strategy uses relative strength to gain exposure to real assets (gold or commodities), U.S. large-cap equities, and a relative strength sleeve between Mid-Cap Value, International equities, Equities Long/Short, or Managed Futures. When momentum signals are unfavorable, capital is defensively allocated to IEF, an intermediate duration Treasury ETF, as the Risk Off allocation by sleeve. By blending uncorrelated sleeves with adaptive risk management, Triad seeks to enhance returns while maintaining strong downside protection. Triad uses no leverage.

CAGR

16.0%

Max drawdown

-13.8%

MAR

1.16

Since

1980

Read how Triad 135 works

Triad 170

Triad is a three-sleeve, momentum-driven allocation strategy designed as a forward-looking alternative to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Each sleeve operates independently, combining dual momentum and autocorrelation signals to dynamically allocate across diversified return streams. The strategy uses relative strength to gain exposure to real assets (gold or commodities), U.S. large-cap equities, and a relative strength sleeve between Mid-Cap Value, International equities, Equities Long/Short, or Managed Futures. When momentum signals are unfavorable, capital is defensively allocated to IEF, an intermediate duration Treasury ETF, as the Risk Off allocation by sleeve. By blending uncorrelated sleeves with adaptive risk management, Triad seeks to enhance returns while maintaining strong downside protection. Triad uses no leverage.

CAGR

17.2%

Max drawdown

-13.8%

MAR

1.24

Since

1980

Read how Triad 170 works

Global Navigator

Global Navigator is a disciplined dual momentum strategy. When Risk-On, it allocates between U.S. and International equities based on relative strength, selecting whichever exhibits superior momentum - U.S. large cap (IWB) at 100%, or a 50/50 split allocation between the unhedged and USD-hedged international equities (VXUS and DBEF), this splits the currency exposure rather than taking a view on the dollar. When neither is beating cash, the strategy is Risk-Off and steps out of equities entirely.

CAGR

13.9%

Max drawdown

-23.1%

MAR

0.60

Since

1980

Read how Global Navigator works

Global Navigator 200

Global Navigator is a disciplined dual momentum strategy. When Risk-On, it allocates between U.S. and International equities based on relative strength, selecting whichever exhibits superior momentum - U.S. large cap (IWB) at 100%, or a 50/50 split allocation between the unhedged and USD-hedged international equities (VXUS and DBEF), this splits the currency exposure rather than taking a view on the dollar. When neither is beating cash, the strategy is Risk-Off and steps out of equities entirely.

CAGR

17.0%

Max drawdown

-23.1%

MAR

0.74

Since

1980

Read how Global Navigator 200 works

Global Navigator 300

Global Navigator is a disciplined dual momentum strategy. When Risk-On, it allocates between U.S. and International equities based on relative strength, selecting whichever exhibits superior momentum - U.S. large cap (IWB) at 100%, or a 50/50 split allocation between the unhedged and USD-hedged international equities (VXUS and DBEF), this splits the currency exposure rather than taking a view on the dollar. When neither is beating cash, the strategy is Risk-Off and steps out of equities entirely.

CAGR

21.3%

Max drawdown

-24.0%

MAR

0.88

Since

1980

Read how Global Navigator 300 works

GPMv

GPMv is a conservative, low-volatility tactical asset allocation strategy designed as a superior, adaptable alternative to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. It is a variant of the Generalized Protective Momentum (GPM) strategy by JW Keuning and Wouter Keller, with five stylistic modifications that open the universe slightly to capture additional positive returns while preserving the core protective nature. GPMv blends one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month momentum with ETF performance correlations to dynamically scale into and out of Risk-On assets (11 ETFs across equities, commodities, and real assets) and Safety assets of medium term treasuries or short term treasuries. The strategy prioritizes low drawdowns. Rebalancing follows the model rather than the calendar: GPMv trades when its target allocation changes, so months in which the signals ask for nothing new require no trades at all.

CAGR

12.7%

Max drawdown

-11.8%

MAR

1.08

Since

1980

Read how GPMv works

LT Gain

LT Gain is a single-asset momentum strategy that holds U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) for as long as their trailing momentum beats cash, and steps entirely out of equities when it does not. There is no relative momentum step and no international sleeve - the only question each month is whether to be invested at all. When Risk-Off, the Treasury Duration Limiter decides what kind of safety to hold: long-duration Treasuries while long duration is still working, or short duration for the rest of that defensive stretch once long duration turns against it. LT Gain is always 100% in a single ETF. LT Gain does not use any leverage. The goal is good long term gain results.

CAGR

12.7%

Max drawdown

-23.4%

MAR

0.54

Since

1980

Read how LT Gain works

LT Gain 200

LT Gain is a single-asset momentum strategy that holds U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) for as long as their trailing momentum beats cash, and steps entirely out of equities when it does not. There is no relative momentum step and no international sleeve - the only question each month is whether to be invested at all. When Risk-Off, the Treasury Duration Limiter decides what kind of safety to hold: long-duration Treasuries while long duration is still working, or short duration for the rest of that defensive stretch once long duration turns against it. LT Gain is always 100% in a single ETF. LT Gain does not use any leverage. The goal is good long term gain results.

CAGR

16.0%

Max drawdown

-24.1%

MAR

0.66

Since

1980

Read how LT Gain 200 works

LT Gain 300

LT Gain is a single-asset momentum strategy that holds U.S. large-cap equities (IWB) for as long as their trailing momentum beats cash, and steps entirely out of equities when it does not. There is no relative momentum step and no international sleeve - the only question each month is whether to be invested at all. When Risk-Off, the Treasury Duration Limiter decides what kind of safety to hold: long-duration Treasuries while long duration is still working, or short duration for the rest of that defensive stretch once long duration turns against it. LT Gain is always 100% in a single ETF. LT Gain does not use any leverage. The goal is good long term gain results.

CAGR

20.4%

Max drawdown

-31.9%

MAR

0.64

Since

1980

Read how LT Gain 300 works

Alpha by Sector

Alpha by Sector is a disciplined high confidence equity strategy which holds between 9–18 market-leading stocks across multiple sectors - companies that have broken out to, or are very near new 52-week highs on volume, with rising earnings estimates, accelerating revenue, and a clear forward catalyst. Each position must clear a 5-factor scoring threshold to enter and re-earn its place at every monthly review, while four market-health canaries (credit spreads, breadth, trend, and volatility) govern when to tighten exposure or shift to a defensive posture. The canary indicators are not indented to avoid loss, but limit damage in a down market. Investing in individual equities with TAA-like structure and canary indicators.

Read how Alpha by Sector works

Permanent Portfolio DMS

Permanent Portfolio DMS is a modernized version of Harry Browne’s 1981 Permanent Portfolio, it shows how simplicity beats complexity. Browne’s philosophy - equal weights in four assets covering prosperity, recession, inflation, and crisis - requires no forecasting no change of positions, just annual rebalancing.

CAGR

10.0%

Max drawdown

-10.9%

MAR

0.92

Since

1980

Read how Permanent Portfolio DMS works

Falcon

Falcon can be thought of as a hedge fund adaptation of the Permanent Portfolio DMS. The Permanent Portfolio balances four economic regimes - prosperity, recession, inflation, deflation - using directional assets, and does it with a purist's simplicity that has held up for decades. Falcon keeps the philosophy and replaces the instruments. Instead of four directional asset classes, it holds four internally adaptive, dynamically managed return streams: risk parity, global macro, long/short equity, and managed futures. Each sleeve is doing its own diversification work inside the fund before Falcon ever combines them, which is a fundamentally more forward-looking way to build an all-weather portfolio than fixing the exposures yourself and hoping the regimes cooperate.

CAGR

11.0%

Max drawdown

-10.9%

MAR

1.01

Since

1980

Read how Falcon works

Family Office Blueprint

Family Office Blueprint is a diversified multi-asset strategy designed to replicate how the world’s largest family offices allocate capital, using liquid daily-traded ETFs instead of private funds, lockups, or institutional minimums. It spreads exposure across public equities, hedge fund replication, private equity proxies, private credit, fixed income, and cash, with each sleeve serving a distinct role in long-term compounding and portfolio resilience. The strategy is built around the idea that true diversification comes from owning asset classes with different return drivers, not simply mixing stocks and bonds, and it reflects current family office tilts toward private credit, alternative diversifiers, and elevated dry powder while reducing dependence on traditional 60/40 construction.

CAGR

9.4%

Max drawdown

-19.7%

MAR

0.48

Since

2019

Read how Family Office Blueprint works

Hybrid Asset Allocation

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) is Keller & Keuning's blend of dual momentum and breadth-based canary signaling across a global 8-asset opportunity set spanning equities, real estate, and bonds. A single "canary" asset acts as an early-warning gauge for market stress: when its momentum turns negative, HAA moves the entire portfolio to whichever defensive asset looks strongest. When the canary is healthy, HAA ranks the offensive universe by momentum and holds an equal-weighted basket of the four strongest assets — swapping out any pick that has itself lost momentum for a defensive holding. The result is a strategy that stays broadly invested during calm markets but reacts decisively at the first sign of trouble.

CAGR

14.1%

Max drawdown

-9.6%

MAR

1.46

Since

1980

Read how Hybrid Asset Allocation works

Bold Asset Allocation - Balanced

BAA (Bold Asset Allocation), Balanced is Keller & Keuning's most ambitious model, pulling together the best ideas from three of their earlier strategies into a single set of rules. Four "canary" assets stand in for the health of global markets: U.S. large caps, developed international stocks, emerging markets, and U.S. aggregate bonds. Every one of them has to show positive momentum for BAA to take risk. If even a single canary weakens, the entire portfolio moves to the defensive side. That is a deliberately jumpy trigger, and it is meant to be: BAA would rather be early and wrong than late and hurt, and historically it has spent roughly 60% of months positioned defensively.

CAGR

11.7%

Max drawdown

-11.4%

MAR

1.03

Since

1980

Read how Bold Asset Allocation - Balanced works

Bold Asset Allocation - Aggressive

BAA (Bold Asset Allocation), Aggressive is the same machinery as BAA Balanced, dialled to its extreme. It watches the same four "canary" assets, and every one of them still has to show positive momentum before the strategy will take any risk at all. When a canary weakens, it retreats to the same seven-asset defensive universe, takes the three strongest, and swaps out any that cannot outrun T-bills. Roughly 60% of months are spent on that defensive footing.

CAGR

15.4%

Max drawdown

-21.3%

MAR

0.72

Since

1980

Read how Bold Asset Allocation - Aggressive works

Defensive Asset Allocation

DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) is Keller & Keuning's canary-driven successor to their earlier momentum work, built around a 12-asset global universe and a dedicated pair of "canary" assets whose health determines how defensively the portfolio should be positioned. When both canaries show negative momentum, DAA moves entirely to its strongest bond holding. When just one canary is struggling, the portfolio splits — half into its top-ranked equities and diversifiers, half into safety. When both canaries are healthy, DAA commits fully to an equal-weighted basket of its strongest risk assets. By using breadth across two independent stress signals rather than a single switch, DAA aims to distinguish a genuine broad-based downturn from an isolated pocket of weakness.

CAGR

11.3%

Max drawdown

-20.2%

MAR

0.56

Since

1980

Read how Defensive Asset Allocation works

Vigilant Asset Allocation - Aggressive

VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation), Aggressive is the strategy that started Keller & Keuning's canary lineage, and the simplest of the family to describe. It watches four assets: U.S. large caps, developed international stocks, emerging markets, and U.S. aggregate bonds. Each month it scores all four on the same weighted momentum measure, giving the most recent month the heaviest vote. If every one of the four is positive, the strategy puts the entire portfolio into whichever is strongest. If even one of the four is negative, it steps aside entirely and moves everything into the best of three defensive assets: corporate bonds, intermediate Treasuries, or short Treasuries.

CAGR

12.4%

Max drawdown

-21.6%

MAR

0.57

Since

1980

Read how Vigilant Asset Allocation - Aggressive works

Generalized Protective Momentum

GPM (Generalized Protective Momentum) is Keller & Keuning's momentum model across a 12-asset global universe of equities, real assets, and bonds, and it's the strategy GPMv was built from. GPM's key refinement over simpler momentum models is that it scores each asset not just on momentum, but on how correlated that asset's returns are to the broader risk universe — an asset with strong momentum that's also highly correlated with everything else gets discounted, while a strong performer that moves independently is rewarded. The strategy concentrates conviction in its three highest-scoring assets rather than spreading across many holdings, and scales its defensive allocation to short or intermediate Treasuries based on the breadth of positive-momentum assets across the universe — the fewer assets in an uptrend, the larger the defensive cushion. This correlation-aware scoring is what "generalized" refers to in the name: a more adaptive evolution of protective momentum investing.

CAGR

9.9%

Max drawdown

-11.7%

MAR

0.84

Since

1980

Read how Generalized Protective Momentum works

Protective Asset Allocation

PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) is Keller & Keuning's answer to a common tactical allocation weakness: strategies that stay fully invested until a signal flips, then move all at once. Rather than an all-or-nothing switch, PAA scales gradually into cash as market breadth deteriorates — the more of its 12-asset universe that loses momentum, the larger the defensive cushion becomes, well before a full-blown downturn. Within its risk-on sleeve, PAA ranks assets by momentum and holds the six strongest, each still required to show its own positive trend to earn a place in the portfolio. Its defensive capital splits between two safety assets, always favoring whichever offers the stronger "crisis alpha" at the time. This gradual, breadth-driven approach to risk reduction is what gives Protective Asset Allocation its name — protection that scales with the danger rather than arriving all at once.

CAGR

9.8%

Max drawdown

-13.9%

MAR

0.70

Since

1980

Read how Protective Asset Allocation works

Global Equities Momentum

GEM (Global Equities Momentum) is Gary Antonacci's original dual momentum model - the strategy that gave the entire dual momentum framework its name, and a foundational inspiration for DMS. Each month, GEM compares U.S. equities against International equities and holds whichever shows superior 12-month relative strength. But before committing to either, the strategy applies an absolute momentum test: if neither U.S. nor International equities is outperforming T-bills, GEM sidesteps stocks entirely and shifts into aggregate bonds for safety. This simple two-layer approach - relative strength paired with a trend-following safety check - became one of the most studied tactical allocation models ever published, prized for capturing global equity growth while sitting out prolonged bear markets.

CAGR

14.0%

Max drawdown

-22.7%

MAR

0.61

Since

1980

Read how Global Equities Momentum works

Composite Dual Momentum

CDM (Composite Dual Momentum) extends Gary Antonacci's original dual momentum framework across four independent, equal-weighted sleeves - equities, credit, real estate, and economic stress - rather than relying on a single equity decision. Each sleeve applies the same dual momentum logic: relative strength picks the stronger of two related assets, while an absolute momentum test versus T-bills determines whether that sleeve should be invested at all or held in cash. By spreading risk across four uncorrelated return streams instead of one, CDM aims to smooth returns and reduce reliance on any single market regime, trading some of GEM's simplicity for broader diversification.

CAGR

9.8%

Max drawdown

-13.0%

MAR

0.76

Since

1980

Read how Composite Dual Momentum works

GTAA Agg3

GTAA Agg3 is the concentrated three-slot version of Meb Faber's Global Tactical Asset Allocation, drawn from the paper that did more than any other to put tactical asset allocation in front of ordinary investors. Each month it ranks thirteen global asset classes - US value and momentum equities, small caps, international and emerging market stocks, Treasuries across the curve, corporate and international bonds, commodities, gold, and real estate - by the plain average of their 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns, then buys the top three at a third of the portfolio apiece. Each pick still has to clear one more hurdle: if it sits below its 10-month moving average, that slot goes to cash instead of the asset. Relative momentum does most of the work, since the strongest names in a broad basket are usually already trending higher, and the moving average acts as the brake for the times they are not. The price of holding only three slots is real concentration, and the portfolio can end up entirely in one category.

CAGR

11.8%

Max drawdown

-20.0%

MAR

0.59

Since

1980

Read how GTAA Agg3 works

All Weather

All Weather is Ray Dalio's answer to a question most portfolios never ask: what do you hold when you have no idea what the economy will do next? His observation is that every asset class has an environment it thrives in and an environment it suffers in. Growth surprises lift stocks. Deflation and falling growth lift long-term bonds. Inflation lifts gold and commodities. Since nobody can reliably call which environment is arriving, the sensible response is to own something tuned to each and stop guessing.

CAGR

8.5%

Max drawdown

-21.1%

MAR

0.40

Since

1980

Read how All Weather works

Golden Butterfly

Golden Butterfly, designed by Tyler at Portfolio Charts, takes the Permanent Portfolio's economic risk parity idea and tilts it toward prosperity. It shares four of its five assets with the Permanent Portfolio - large-cap stocks, long-term treasuries, short-term treasuries, and gold - but splits what would be a single equity sleeve into two: large-cap blend alongside small-cap value. The result pairs the Permanent Portfolio's famous consistency with meaningfully better long-run growth.

CAGR

8.6%

Max drawdown

-17.3%

MAR

0.50

Since

1980

Read how Golden Butterfly works

Profit Farmer w/Gold

Profit Farmer is a momentum-driven Adaptive Allocation strategy that rotates monthly among a small basket of 3x leveraged ETFs. Each month it ranks the universe by trailing two-month return, selects the strongest three, and weights them using Minimum Variance optimization - sizing each position to minimize the combined portfolio's expected volatility rather than splitting capital evenly. The optimizer works from a real daily-return covariance matrix rather than a simple inverse-volatility rule, which means the three holdings are rarely equal-sized and a selected asset can legitimately be sized to zero if it adds risk without adding diversification. The base universe is emerging markets (EDC), U.S. small cap (URTY), Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ), long-term Treasuries (TMF), and U.S. real estate (DRN), each 3x leveraged.

CAGR

27.2%

Max drawdown

-68.3%

MAR

0.40

Since

1991

Read how Profit Farmer w/Gold works

Profit Farmer

Profit Farmer is a momentum-driven Adaptive Allocation strategy that rotates monthly among a small basket of 3x leveraged ETFs. Each month it ranks the universe by trailing two-month return, selects the strongest three, and weights them using Minimum Variance optimization - sizing each position to minimize the combined portfolio's expected volatility rather than splitting capital evenly. The optimizer works from a real daily-return covariance matrix rather than a simple inverse-volatility rule, which means the three holdings are rarely equal-sized and a selected asset can legitimately be sized to zero if it adds risk without adding diversification. The base universe is emerging markets (EDC), U.S. small cap (URTY), Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ), long-term Treasuries (TMF), and U.S. real estate (DRN), each 3x leveraged.

CAGR

26.2%

Max drawdown

-87.1%

MAR

0.30

Since

1991

Read how Profit Farmer works