U-Global Navigator 200 Strategy Overview

Results over the full published history, 1980 to September 2026. Net of trading friction.
CAGR17.9%
Maximum drawdown-22.3%
MAR ratio0.80
History46 years (561 months)

U-Global Navigator 200 is U-Global Navigator, the UCITS version of Global Navigator, with Smart Leverage added in the same way as Global Navigator 200. During the recovery phase of a U.S. equity drawdown, and only then, the U.S. large cap position is held through a 2x S&P 500 UCITS fund. Every other rule is U-Global Navigator's.

U-Global Navigator's logic and its UCITS funds are on the U-Global Navigator page. How Smart Leverage arms, deploys and exits is on the Global Navigator 200 page; U-Global Navigator 200 uses the same module with the same settings.

What the 200 means

U-Global Navigator holds a single fund whenever it is Risk On. When Smart Leverage is deployed and that fund is U.S. large cap, the whole position is held through the 2x fund, so notional exposure is 200%. Leverage never applies to the international position or to the defensive position.

The UCITS Funds

RoleFundTicker (London, USD)GBP lineISIN
U.S. large cap (S&P 500)iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc)CSPXCSP1IE00B5BMR087
International equitiesVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US UCITS ETF (Acc)VXUAVXUSIE0009A5ADV9
Long TreasuriesiShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF (Acc)DTLAnoneIE00BFM6TC58
Short Treasuries (T-bills)iShares $ Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (Acc)IB01noneIE00BGSF1X88
2x S&P 500 (Smart Leverage)Xtrackers S&P 500 2x Leveraged Daily Swap UCITS ETFXS2DnoneLU0411078552

Performance Highlights

January 1980 through September 2026, net of trading friction:

CAGRMax DrawdownUlcer IndexUPI
U-Global Navigator 200+17.9%-22.3%5.962.29
U-Global Navigator+14.7%-25.1%6.401.63
Global Navigator 200+17.5%-21.8%5.742.32
S&P 500+12.0%-51.0%12.720.61

The Ulcer Index measures how deep and how long drawdowns were, not just the single worst one: lower is better. UPI (Ulcer Performance Index) is return above T-bills per unit of Ulcer Index: higher is better.

Leverage was deployed in the same 108 of 561 months as Global Navigator 200. Over the full history the two are close on every measure. Since 2013, U-Global Navigator 200 returned 15.7% a year against Global Navigator 200's 16.1%, with a UPI of 2.20 against 2.46.

Notes for Investors Outside the US

  • Results are in US dollars. The strategy is calculated on the history of the equivalent US funds, in US dollars. If you measure your portfolio in pounds, euros or another currency, your results will also move with the exchange rate.
  • Why UCITS funds. Irish-domiciled UCITS funds are the standard way for non-US investors to hold US markets. They often receive US dividends at a lower withholding rate than a non-US investor holding US-listed ETFs directly would, and they are not US assets for US estate tax purposes. Rules vary by country, so check with a tax adviser where you live.
  • Leveraged funds reset daily. The 2x UCITS funds target twice the daily return of their index. Over longer periods their returns can differ from twice the index return, especially in volatile markets, which is why Smart Leverage holds them only in defined recovery phases.
  • Listings. The tickers above are the London Stock Exchange USD lines unless noted. Most of the funds also trade in London in pounds and on European exchanges in euros, under the same ISIN, which is the surest way to find the right fund at any broker.

Who It's For

U-Global Navigator 200 is for investors outside the US who want U-Global Navigator with optional, rules-based leverage during recoveries, built only from UCITS funds. It is not a starting point for anyone who has not held a leveraged position through a drawdown before.


Past performance, including backtested results, is not indicative of future results. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not reflect actual trading, and benefits from hindsight in the selection of strategy rules. U-Global Navigator 200 is calculated on the history of the equivalent US-listed funds; the UCITS funds track the same or closely matching indexes but their returns will differ, including from fees, tax treatment and currency. Portions of the long-term history rely on reconstructed proxy data for funds that did not exist for the full period, including the international, Treasury and leveraged funds. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.

For the latest details, visit www.DualMomentumSystems.com

Performance in detail

Growth of $10,000 (log scale)

Drawdown from previous high

Calendar-year returns

Selected range Jan 1980 to Sep 2026

PortfolioCAGRMax DDUlcerUPISortinoMAR
U-Global Navigator 20017.9%-22.3%5.962.292.160.80
Global Navigator 20017.5%-21.8%5.742.322.170.80
S&P 50012.0%-51.0%12.720.611.300.24
60/4010.0%-32.3%6.120.951.720.31

What the record shows

From Jan 1980 through Sep 2026, U-Global Navigator 200 compounded at 17.9% a year after trading costs. $10,000 invested at the start grew to about $21,789,633.

That is 0.3 points a year more than Global Navigator 200, its default benchmark, over the same months, and it out-returned Global Navigator 200 in 2 of the 5 decades in the record.

Its deepest decline was 22.3%, from a peak in Aug 1987 to a low in Aug 1988, and it was back to its old high by May 1989.

Return is only half the picture. The Ulcer Performance Index measures return against the depth and length of drawdowns, and on it U-Global Navigator 200 scores 2.29, essentially level with Global Navigator 200 at 2.32.

In the 195 months the S&P 500 fell, U-Global Navigator 200 still made money in 34% of them.

Since 2000

The modern half of the record, with the dot-com bust, 2008, the long zero-rate decade and the 2022 rate shock all inside it.

Jan 2000 to Sep 2026CAGRMax DDUlcerUPISortinoMAR
U-Global Navigator 20016.3%-16.7%5.402.672.170.97
Global Navigator 20016.2%-16.1%5.142.782.181.01
S&P 5008.1%-51.0%15.890.390.880.16
60/406.6%-32.3%7.620.621.110.20

Return by decade

Annual return1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s*
U-Global Navigator 200+24.7%+15.5%+15.7%+12.6%+22.8%
Global Navigator 200+23.1%+15.8%+13.9%+14.0%+23.0%
S&P 500+17.0%+18.1%-1.0%+12.9%+15.3%
60/40+15.5%+14.0%+2.1%+9.4%+9.4%

* Partial decade, annualized over the months available.

Through the hard stretches

Total return over each period, start of the first month to the end of the last.

PeriodU-GN200GN200S&P 50060/40
1987 crashSep 1987 to Nov 1987-17.2%-17.7%-29.8%-17.7%
Dot-com bear marketSep 2000 to Sep 2002+10.8%+12.7%-44.8%-23.5%
Global financial crisisNov 2007 to Feb 2009-7.3%-8.4%-51.0%-32.3%
COVID crashFeb 2020 to Mar 2020-2.3%-0.8%-19.6%-11.9%
2022 rate shockJan 2022 to Dec 2022-15.1%-16.1%-18.2%-15.9%

How it behaves month to month

Since Jan 1980Worst 12 monthsPositive monthsPositive when S&P 500 fellCorrelation to S&P 500
U-Global Navigator 200-22.3%70%34%0.57
Global Navigator 200-21.8%69%32%0.56
60/40-27.5%67%10%0.98

Every figure is net of trading costs and computed from the same monthly data as the rest of the site, over the months all the portfolios shown have in common (Jan 1980 to Sep 2026). Returns before an ETF's launch come from a matching index, as explained in where the data comes from. Backtests are hypothetical and are not a promise of future results.