When the Inflation Adjusted toggle is enabled, every monthly return shown is converted from a nominal return to a real return - what you actually gained in purchasing power after consumer prices rose that month.
The conversion uses the standard formula:
real return = (1 + nominal return) ÷ (1 + monthly CPI change) − 1
Inflation data comes from the BLS CPI-U (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers), measured month over month. Because the CPI is published with a roughly one-month lag, the most recent month carries forward the last known CPI value until the official print arrives - an approach that avoids guessing.
A few things to know:
Why use it? Long backtests can flatter a strategy: a 10% nominal year during 8% inflation only grew your purchasing power about 2%. Real returns are the honest yardstick for long-horizon planning, especially for withdrawal-rate analysis.
Strategy results which ignore trading costs overstate what you would have actually earned. The Trading Friction toggle (on by default) deducts an estimated cost from each month's return based on how much the strategy actually traded that month.
The model is turnover-weighted. Each month, the strategy's new target ETF weights are compared against what it was already holding as the month opened. The sum of the absolute weight changes is the turnover, and each traded slice is charged a one-way cost based on the ETF's leverage:
| ETF type | One-way cost |
|---|---|
| Non-leveraged (1×) | 10 bps (0.10%) |
| 2× leveraged | 15 bps (0.15%) |
| 3× leveraged | 20 bps (0.20%) |
So a month that rotates 50% of the portfolio out of one 1× ETF and into another costs roughly 0.10% (10 bps on the 50% sold + 10 bps on the 50% bought). Leveraged ETFs are charged more because their wider spreads and higher trading impact make them costlier to trade in practice.
Holdings that are left alone still move. This is the subtle part, and it is why the comparison is against what the strategy was holding rather than against last month's published percentages. If you hold 50% stocks and 50% bonds and stocks gain 10% while bonds are flat, you are holding roughly 52.4% / 47.6% a month later without having placed a single trade. Those percentages changed, but nothing was bought or sold and nothing was owed to a broker.
Two consequences follow:
Other points:
If you want to see the "frictionless" academic version of a backtest, switch the toggle off - just remember nobody earns those returns in a real account.
Monthly rotation strategies generate realized capital gains, and in a taxable account those gains get taxed. The Taxable Account toggle estimates after-tax returns so you can see how a strategy holds up once the IRS takes its share.
When you enable it, a settings dialog collects:
From your filing status and income, your marginal ordinary-income rate (applied to short-term gains) and your long-term capital-gains rate are used based on the 2025 federal brackets, and adds the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax when your income exceeds the NIIT threshold ($200K single/HoH, $250K MFJ).
How the tax is applied:
A few caveats worth knowing:
Use the ⚙ button next to the toggle to revisit your settings at any time.
The Tax Profile (Est.) panel in the Strategy View's Return Statistics shows how tax-friendly a strategy's trading actually is - how many of its realized gains qualified for long-term capital-gains treatment versus being taxed as short-term gains at ordinary income rates.
Rather than guessing from turnover, we run a realization-based simulation of what a real account would have done:
The panel reports, for the date range you've selected:
A higher LT Gains % means more of the strategy's gains get the favorable long-term rate. This percentage is also what the Taxable Account toggle uses to blend your short-term and long-term tax rates when estimating after-tax returns - so the two features share one consistent model.
Two limitations to be aware of:
CAGR stands for Compound Annual Growth Rate. It answers a simple question: if a strategy grew at a perfectly steady rate every year, what would that annual rate be? It is the standard way to compare returns across strategies with different track record lengths, because raw cumulative return is misleading - a strategy with 20 years of history and a strategy with 3 years of history need a common yardstick.
The formula compounds the total return over the full period and then scales it to one year:
CAGR = (Ending Value / Starting Value) ^ (1 / Years) − 1
A strategy that turned $10,000 into $18,000 over 5 years has a CAGR of about 12.5%, regardless of how bumpy or smooth the ride was along the way.
What CAGR doesn't tell you
CAGR says nothing about risk, volatility, or drawdowns. Two strategies can share the same CAGR while one lost 50% and recovered while the other barely dipped. For a fuller picture, pair it with Max Drawdown, Ulcer Index, and Sortino ratio.
Maximum Drawdown (Max DD) is the largest peak-to-trough decline a strategy has experienced over its history — measured from a peak (high-water mark) down to the lowest point that followed it. It is expressed as a negative percentage. A Max DD of −15% means the strategy fell 15% from its peak before recovering.
It answers a pointed question: what is the worst loss an investor in this strategy would have had to endure — how bad did it get before things turned around?
How it is calculated
DMS computes Max DD on a month-end basis using the strategy's full return history. At each month-end, it looks at how far the strategies and benchmarks have fallen from previous month end highs. The largest of those declines across the entire history is the Max DD figure.
Because DMS strategies are evaluated monthly, the Max DD reflects month-end to month-end moves. Daily Max DD is generally around 1.5x higher than month end drawdowns; however, we compare strategies and benchmarks all on month end basis so it is an equal comparison.
What it is useful for
Max DD is one of the most honest stress-tests available for a strategy. It tells you: this is the real-world pain that an investor would have experienced at the worst moment in the strategy's recorded history. Paired with the Max DD Recovery metric — which shows how long it took to get back to the prior peak — it gives a sense of both depth and duration of the worst episode.
For comparison, the S&P 500 has experienced drawdowns exceeding 50%, and a traditional 60/40 portfolio has seen drawdowns around 32%. DMS strategies are designed with low drawdowns as a central goal, not an afterthought.
What it does not tell you
This is the most important thing to understand about Max DD: it is a historical figure, not a guarantee of maximum future drawdowns.
The Max DD shown is the worst drawdown the strategy has experienced to date, based on the specific market environments in the backtest and live history. It is not a promise, a guarantee, or a prediction of the worst that could ever happen. As Meb Faber so aptly has said: your largest drawdown is still to come.
Max DD and the date range selector
In DMS, the Max DD shown in the Metrics view reflects the currently selected date range, not necessarily the full history. If you narrow the date range to the last five years, you will see the worst drawdown within that period of time — which may be smaller than the all-time Max DD if the worst episode occurred outside the selected period. For the full-history figure, use the maximum available date range for each strategy.
Pairing Max DD with other risk metrics
Max DD captures the single worst episode but says nothing about how often or how persistently a strategy draws down. Two strategies can share the same Max DD while feeling very different to hold — one might recover quickly, another might grind sideways for years. For a fuller picture of drawdown behavior, pair Max DD with:
Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) is an active approach to investing that shifts a portfolio's mix of assets in response to changing market conditions. Rather than holding fixed weights forever - say, always 60% stocks and 40% bonds - a TAA strategy adjusts those weights month to month based on rules designed to favor what is working and reduce exposure to what isn't.
The goal is to capture meaningful upside during strong market environments while pulling back before or during serious downturns. Most TAA strategies use some form of momentum (leaning toward assets that have been rising) or trend-following (staying invested when an asset is above a long-term average, stepping aside when it falls below).
How it differs from buy-and-hold
A buy-and-hold investor accepts whatever the market delivers - including the full depth of bear markets. A TAA strategy attempts to earn competitive long-term returns with smaller, shorter drawdowns by rotating out of falling assets and into rising ones. The trade-off is that it won't always be fully invested in the best-performing asset, and it can lag during sharp, fast recoveries.
How it differs from strategic (static) allocation
Strategic allocation sets target weights - such as 40% US stocks, 30% international, 20% bonds, 10% real assets - and rebalances back to those targets periodically. The weights themselves don't change with market conditions. TAA goes a step further: the weights themselves are driven by signals, so the portfolio can look very different from one month to the next.
Monthly rebalancing
Most strategies tracked on DMS | Dual Momentum Systems rebalance once a month, at month-end. Each month the strategy's rules are applied to recent return data and a new target allocation is produced. If the targets changed, trades are made; if not, the portfolio sits unchanged and no trading costs are incurred.
Why TAA strategies vary widely
The universe of assets, the signals used, the lookback period, and the rules for switching between risk-on and risk-off positions all differ across strategies. Some rotate among a small set of broad ETFs; others select from a larger menu. Some go to cash or short-term bonds when conditions look poor; others rotate into defensive assets. These differences produce very different return and risk profiles, which is why comparing them across the same historical periods is useful.
Smart Leverage is a rules-based overlay used in several DMS strategies that selectively deploys leveraged ETFs during market recovery windows — when the odds are in your favor of capturing additional gains on the upside without large downside risk. It is not the same as being permanently leveraged. The base strategy operates unleveraged; leverage is an occasional, conditional event triggered by a market drawdown.
The trigger rule
Smart Leverage watches the month-end drawdown of IWB (the iShares Russell 1000 ETF) from its most recent monthly closing high. When that drawdown reaches 10% or greater, the trigger fires. After the trigger point, when the strategy goes back into Risk On, it does so with leverage.
Note that Calculated Risk 229 is a fund of strategies and includes Triad 135 and Global Navigator 300.
Note that Calculated Risk 288 is a portfolio that includes Global Navigator 300.
The drawdown is measured from month-end close to month-end close, intraday swings do not trigger Smart Leverage. It can accumulate across multiple months of declining markets — it is not a single-month measure.
The exit rule
The leveraged position is held for up to one year, or until the strategy's dual momentum signal says to exit equities, whichever comes first. Holding for up to 12 months serves a secondary purpose for taxable accounts: gains that would otherwise be short-term can become long-term if held long enough. When the leveraged position closes, the strategy returns to its unleveraged default.
How often does it trigger?
Smart Leverage triggers infrequently and selectively. The goal is not to be leveraged most of the time, but to concentrate leverage in high-conviction recovery setups — periods where a meaningful market pullback has already occurred and momentum signals a return to equities.
Historical track record
The historical results have been compelling. For Global Navigator, only one of its Smart Leverage periods produced a worse outcome than staying unleveraged would have.
What Smart Leverage is not
Smart Leverage is not a guarantee. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses — if the market continues to fall after the trigger fires and Risk On directs the allocation, the impact is magnified compared to holding the unleveraged fund. The historical win rate is high, but no rule works every time. Anyone using a leveraged strategy variant should be comfortable with the possibility of outsized drawdowns during the periods when leverage is active. Strategies using Smart Leverage do not have higher drawdowns than the versions without Smart Leverage, but that may not always be the case.
Which strategies use Smart Leverage?
Any Strategy with a three digit number after it is a strategy that uses Smart Leverage, that number indicates the maximum leverage for the strategy. Triad 135 means that 135% is the maximum leverage, for Calculated Risk 229, 229% leverage is the maximum leverage position. If you pull up a strategy on the Strategy View page, you can see the maximum and average leverage positions by strategy - this is located at the bottom of the ALLOCATIONS & CONTRIBUTIONS section.
Treasury Duration Limiter, TDL. This is a protective overlay built into several DMS strategies which restricts the Risk Off holding to short-duration treasuries when long-duration treasuries would have otherwise been allocation.
Why it exists
Many DMS strategies will hold long duration treasuries as their Risk Off asset (some go into CAOS.) Historically, when equities fall, investors flee to long-duration treasuries, which drives their prices up and helps cushion market drawdowns. This relationship held reliably for decades. But it is not guaranteed. In early 2022, rising interest rates caused long-duration treasuries to fall at the same time as equities — one of the worst-ever years for long-duration treasury returns on record. Strategies that rotated defensively into long-term treasuries in that environment found that the expected safe harbor was also under water.
TDL was developed in response to that new reality. The goal: if long-duration treasuries look likely to be hazardous, steer into short-duration treasuries instead and avoid the compounding of a bad equity period with bad treasury performance.
How the signal works
TDL uses a momentum-based signal on long-duration treasuries themselves. It applies a weighted lookback to the returns of long-duration treasuries, using a front-weighted formula that prioritizes more recent price behavior and will keep the Risk Off allocation in shorter duration treasuries if it looks to be the better option.
What TDL does not do
TDL is only active when a strategy is already in its risk-off, defensive position. It has no effect on equity allocations and does not determine when to enter or exit equities — that remains the exclusive domain of the strategy's momentum rules. TDL is purely a safety layer within the treasury sleeve.