U-Global Navigator Strategy Overview
| CAGR | 14.7% |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -25.1% |
| MAR ratio | 0.58 |
| History | 46 years (561 months) |
U-Global Navigator is the UCITS version of Global Navigator, developed by Randy Harris of Dual Momentum Systems for investors outside the United States who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs.
The momentum measure, the Risk On / Risk Off test, the choice between U.S. and international equities and the Treasury Duration Limiter are all Global Navigator's. The full three-step logic is on the Global Navigator page. This page covers what is different and what to hold.
How It Works
- In or out. Each month U-Global Navigator compares the momentum of U.S. large cap and international equities with T-bills. If neither beats cash, it is Risk Off.
- Which region. When Risk On, it holds whichever of the two has the stronger momentum, 100% in a single fund.
- What kind of defense. When Risk Off, it holds long-duration Treasuries while they are still working. Once long-duration Treasuries are themselves losing money, the Treasury Duration Limiter steps down to short-term Treasuries for the rest of that defensive stretch.
What Is Different From Global Navigator
| Position | Global Navigator | U-Global Navigator | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. large cap | IWB | S&P 500 (CSPX) | Closest UCITS fund; the two indexes move very closely together |
| International | VXUS 50% / DBEF 50% | VXUS UCITS 100% (VXUA) | No currency-hedged UCITS fund matches DBEF |
| First Risk Off month | Extended-duration Treasuries (EDV) | Long Treasuries (DTLA) | No UCITS fund holds Treasury STRIPS |
| Later Risk Off months | TLT, or BOXX once the limiter fires | DTLA, or IB01 once the limiter fires | Same roles, UCITS funds |
International without the hedge. Global Navigator splits its international position between an unhedged and a dollar-hedged fund so it does not take a view on the dollar. There is no hedged UCITS fund that does the same job, so U-Global Navigator holds the unhedged fund alone. Over the full history this left risk-adjusted return unchanged but deepened the worst drawdown by about three points, because the international position takes the full hit when the dollar strengthens.
Long Treasuries in the first defensive month. Global Navigator holds extended-duration Treasuries for the first month of a Risk Off run. U-Global Navigator holds long Treasuries throughout. That costs about half a point a year over the full history, almost all of it from 17 first months in 46 years, and the worst drawdown is unchanged.
The UCITS Funds
| Role | Fund | Ticker (London, USD) | GBP line | ISIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. large cap (S&P 500) | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc) | CSPX | CSP1 | IE00B5BMR087 |
| International equities | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US UCITS ETF (Acc) | VXUA | VXUS | IE0009A5ADV9 |
| Long Treasuries | iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF (Acc) | DTLA | none | IE00BFM6TC58 |
| Short Treasuries (T-bills) | iShares $ Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (Acc) | IB01 | none | IE00BGSF1X88 |
Performance Highlights
January 1980 through September 2026, net of trading friction:
| CAGR | Max Drawdown | Ulcer Index | UPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U-Global Navigator | +14.7% | -25.1% | 6.40 | 1.63 |
| Global Navigator | +14.2% | -22.0% | 5.89 | 1.70 |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | -51.0% | 12.72 | 0.61 |
The Ulcer Index measures how deep and how long drawdowns were, not just the single worst one: lower is better. UPI (Ulcer Performance Index) is return above T-bills per unit of Ulcer Index: higher is better.
Over the full history U-Global Navigator matched Global Navigator on risk-adjusted return, with a deeper worst drawdown. Since July 2011, when the hedged international fund's real history begins, it has trailed slightly: 12.8% a year against 13.6%, with a UPI of 2.00 against 2.34.
Notes for Investors Outside the US
- Results are in US dollars. The strategy is calculated on the history of the equivalent US funds, in US dollars. If you measure your portfolio in pounds, euros or another currency, your results will also move with the exchange rate.
- Why UCITS funds. Irish-domiciled UCITS funds are the standard way for non-US investors to hold US markets. They often receive US dividends at a lower withholding rate than a non-US investor holding US-listed ETFs directly would, and they are not US assets for US estate tax purposes. Rules vary by country, so check with a tax adviser where you live.
- Listings. The tickers above are the London Stock Exchange USD lines unless noted. Most of the funds also trade in London in pounds and on European exchanges in euros, under the same ISIN, which is the surest way to find the right fund at any broker.
Who It's For
U-Global Navigator is for investors outside the US who want a simple, global dual momentum strategy that holds a single fund most of the time, steps out of equities in prolonged downturns, and is built only from UCITS funds. It suits investors comfortable with unhedged currency exposure in its international position.
Past performance, including backtested results, is not indicative of future results. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not reflect actual trading, and benefits from hindsight in the selection of strategy rules. U-Global Navigator is calculated on the history of the equivalent US-listed funds; the UCITS funds track the same or closely matching indexes but their returns will differ, including from fees, tax treatment and currency. Portions of the long-term history rely on reconstructed proxy data for funds that did not exist for the full period, including the international and Treasury funds. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.
For the latest details, visit www.DualMomentumSystems.com