U-Carrier 170 Strategy Overview
| CAGR | 15.0% |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -21.4% |
| MAR ratio | 0.70 |
| History | 29 years (357 months) |
U-Carrier 170 is U-Carrier, the UCITS version of Carrier, with Smart Leverage added in the same way as Carrier 170. During the recovery phase of a U.S. equity drawdown, and only then, the growth side of the portfolio is held through 2x UCITS funds. Every other rule is U-Carrier's: the same credit-spread signal, the same Risk On / Risk Off test, the same rebalancing.
U-Carrier's logic and its UCITS funds are on the U-Carrier page. How Smart Leverage arms, deploys and exits is on the Carrier 170 page; U-Carrier 170 uses the same module with the same settings.
What the 170 means
The name is the maximum notional exposure while leverage is deployed, and it is the same 170 as Carrier 170. U-Carrier's growth portfolio has more in its leverageable positions than Carrier's (75% against 70%), so U-Carrier 170 keeps five points of its U.S. large cap position unleveraged:
| Holding | Weight | Unleveraged | During a deployment | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. large cap | 55% | CSPX 55% | XS2D 50% + CSPX 5% | 105% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 20% | CNDX | LQQ (2x) | 40% |
| Managed futures | 25% | DBMF | DBMF | 25% |
| Total | 100% | 170% |
Carrier 170 also leaves 30 points unleveraged; for Carrier they are managed futures and long/short equity, for U-Carrier 170 managed futures and a small S&P 500 position. The 50 / 5 split is set when a deployment starts or a rebalance fires, and the two positions drift between those points like any other holding, so the split never creates small trades of its own.
The UCITS Funds
| Role | Fund | Ticker (London, USD) | GBP line | ISIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. large cap (S&P 500) | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc) | CSPX | CSP1 | IE00B5BMR087 |
| Nasdaq 100 | iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc) | CNDX | CNX1 | IE00B53SZB19 |
| Managed futures | iMGP DBi Managed Futures Fund R USD UCITS ETF | DBMF | DBMG | LU2951555585 |
| Intermediate Treasuries | iShares $ Treasury Bond 7-10yr UCITS ETF (Acc) | CBU0 | none | IE00B3VWN518 |
| 2x S&P 500 (Smart Leverage) | Xtrackers S&P 500 2x Leveraged Daily Swap UCITS ETF | XS2D | none | LU0411078552 |
| 2x Nasdaq 100 (Smart Leverage) | Amundi Nasdaq-100 Daily (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF | LQQ (EUR) | none | FR0010342592 |
Performance Highlights
January 1997 through September 2026, net of trading friction:
| CAGR | Max Drawdown | Ulcer Index | UPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U-Carrier 170 | +15.0% | -21.4% | 5.84 | 2.19 |
| U-Carrier | +12.3% | -16.3% | 4.41 | 2.30 |
| Carrier 170 | +16.4% | -19.9% | 5.98 | 2.38 |
| S&P 500 | +9.9% | -51.0% | 15.11 | 0.51 |
The Ulcer Index measures how deep and how long drawdowns were, not just the single worst one: lower is better. UPI (Ulcer Performance Index) is return above T-bills per unit of Ulcer Index: higher is better.
Leverage was deployed in the same 100 of 357 months as Carrier 170, because both use the same U.S. large cap trigger. Over the full history U-Carrier 170 trails Carrier 170 by about 1.5% a year, the same gap as between U-Carrier and Carrier, and mostly from the years before 2013. From 2013 onward U-Carrier 170 returned 15.5% a year against Carrier 170's 16.1%, with a better UPI (2.93 against 2.74) and a shallower worst drawdown.
Notes for Investors Outside the US
- Results are in US dollars. The strategy is calculated on the history of the equivalent US funds, in US dollars. If you measure your portfolio in pounds, euros or another currency, your results will also move with the exchange rate.
- Why UCITS funds. Irish-domiciled UCITS funds are the standard way for non-US investors to hold US markets. They often receive US dividends at a lower withholding rate than a non-US investor holding US-listed ETFs directly would, and they are not US assets for US estate tax purposes. Rules vary by country, so check with a tax adviser where you live.
- Leveraged funds reset daily. The 2x UCITS funds target twice the daily return of their index. Over longer periods their returns can differ from twice the index return, especially in volatile markets, which is why Smart Leverage holds them only in defined recovery phases.
- The 2x Nasdaq 100 fund trades in euros. The Amundi Nasdaq-100 Daily (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF has no London or USD listing. It trades as LQQ in Paris and Milan and as L8I7 on Xetra.
- Listings. The tickers above are the London Stock Exchange USD lines unless noted. Most of the funds also trade in London in pounds and on European exchanges in euros, under the same ISIN, which is the surest way to find the right fund at any broker.
Who It's For
U-Carrier 170 is for investors outside the US who want U-Carrier's credit-regime approach with optional, rules-based leverage during recoveries, built only from UCITS funds. It is not a starting point for anyone who has not held a leveraged position through a drawdown before.
Past performance, including backtested results, is not indicative of future results. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not reflect actual trading, and benefits from hindsight in the selection of strategy rules. U-Carrier 170 is calculated on the history of the equivalent US-listed funds; the UCITS funds track the same or closely matching indexes but their returns will differ, including from fees, tax treatment and currency. Portions of the long-term history rely on reconstructed proxy data for funds that did not exist for the full period, including DBMF and the leveraged funds. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.
For the latest details, visit www.DualMomentumSystems.com