U-Carrier Strategy Overview
| CAGR | 12.3% |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -16.3% |
| MAR ratio | 0.76 |
| History | 29 years (357 months) |
U-Carrier is the UCITS version of Carrier, developed by Randy Harris of Dual Momentum Systems for investors outside the United States. Many investors in the UK, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere cannot buy US-listed ETFs, or are better served by Irish-domiciled UCITS funds. U-Carrier gives them Carrier's credit-regime strategy built entirely from funds they can hold.
The signal and every rule are Carrier's: the same high yield credit spread, the same Risk On / Risk Off test and the same rebalancing. The full logic, including why Carrier watches the credit market instead of price momentum, is on the Carrier page. This page covers what is different and what to hold.
How It Works
Each month U-Carrier reads the high yield credit spread, the extra yield investors demand to hold below-investment-grade corporate bonds instead of Treasuries.
- Risk Off when the spread is 6.5% or higher and not yet 2 points below its highest month-end reading of the last six months. U-Carrier then holds intermediate Treasuries.
- Risk On otherwise, holding its growth portfolio.
Credit stress is rare, so U-Carrier is invested most of the time and changes position less than once a year on average. It rebalances when its position changes, every January, or when a holding drifts more than ten points from its target.
What Is Different From Carrier
Carrier's growth portfolio includes a long/short equity fund (CLSE). There is no UCITS fund that does the same job, so U-Carrier leaves it out and spreads its weight across the remaining holdings:
| Risk On holding | Carrier | U-Carrier |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. large cap | 50% (IWB) | 55% (S&P 500, CSPX) |
| Nasdaq 100 | 20% (QQQ) | 20% (CNDX) |
| Managed futures | 15% (DBMF) | 25% (DBMF UCITS) |
| Long/short equity | 15% (CLSE) | none |
Why 25% managed futures. The split was chosen by testing managed futures from 10% to 35% in five-point steps. Below 20%, the 2022 bear market sets the worst drawdown and it deepens quickly. From 20% up, the worst drawdown returns to Carrier's level, about -16%. At 25%, U-Carrier matches Carrier's drawdown, did better in 2022, and has the stronger risk-adjusted return since 2013. Every five points of managed futures trades about 0.4% a year of return for a smoother ride, so this is a choice along a line rather than a peak in the backtest.
The UCITS Funds
| Role | Fund | Ticker (London, USD) | GBP line | ISIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. large cap | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc) | CSPX | CSP1 | IE00B5BMR087 |
| Nasdaq 100 | iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc) | CNDX | CNX1 | IE00B53SZB19 |
| Managed futures | iMGP DBi Managed Futures Fund R USD UCITS ETF | DBMF | DBMG | LU2951555585 |
| Risk Off | iShares $ Treasury Bond 7-10yr UCITS ETF (Acc) | CBU0 | none | IE00B3VWN518 |
All four are accumulating UCITS funds. The ISIN is the same on every exchange, so it is the surest way to find the right fund at any broker. The S&P 500 fund stands in for Carrier's Russell 1000 fund; the two indexes move very closely together.
Performance Highlights
January 1997 through September 2026, net of trading friction:
| CAGR | Max Drawdown | Ulcer Index | UPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U-Carrier | +12.3% | -16.3% | 4.41 | 2.30 |
| Carrier | +13.8% | -16.1% | 4.69 | 2.48 |
| S&P 500 | +9.9% | -51.0% | 15.11 | 0.51 |
The Ulcer Index measures how deep and how long drawdowns were, not just the single worst one: lower is better. UPI (Ulcer Performance Index) is return above T-bills per unit of Ulcer Index: higher is better.
U-Carrier gives up about 1.5% a year to Carrier over the full history. Most of that gap comes from the years before 2013, and Carrier's long/short fund is represented by reconstructed data before 2010. From 2013 onward the two are close: U-Carrier returned 12.7% a year against Carrier's 13.3%, with a shallower worst drawdown (-13.9% against -16.1%) and a better UPI (2.65 against 2.40). In 2022, the bear market the credit signal cannot see, U-Carrier lost 11.4% against Carrier's 14.1%.
Notes for Investors Outside the US
- Results are in US dollars. U-Carrier is calculated on the history of the equivalent US funds, in US dollars. If you measure your portfolio in pounds, euros or another currency, your results will also move with the exchange rate.
- Why UCITS funds. Irish-domiciled UCITS funds are the standard way for non-US investors to hold US markets. They often receive US dividends at a lower withholding rate than a non-US investor holding US-listed ETFs directly would, and they are not US assets for US estate tax purposes. Rules vary by country, so check with a tax adviser where you live.
- Listings. The tickers above are the London Stock Exchange USD lines. Most of the funds also trade in London in pounds and on European exchanges in euros, under the same ISIN.
Who It's For
U-Carrier is designed for investors outside the US who want:
- A growth portfolio that stays invested through ordinary corrections.
- Few trades and long holding periods.
- A defined, rules-based exit for real credit crises.
- A strategy built only from UCITS funds they can buy.
- Optional tactical leverage during recoveries, via U-Carrier 170.
It is likely a poor fit for investors who want the fastest possible exit in a sudden crash, who need protection against every kind of bear market, or who need current income.
Past performance, including backtested results, is not indicative of future results. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not reflect actual trading, and benefits from hindsight in the selection of strategy rules. U-Carrier is calculated on the history of the equivalent US-listed funds; the UCITS funds track the same or closely matching indexes but their returns will differ, including from fees, tax treatment and currency. Portions of the long-term history rely on reconstructed proxy data for funds that did not exist for the full period, including DBMF. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.
For the latest details, visit www.DualMomentumSystems.com