U-Permanent Portfolio Overview

Results over the full published history, 1980 to September 2026. Net of trading friction.
CAGR7.3%
Maximum drawdown-15.7%
MAR ratio0.47
History46 years (561 months)

U-Permanent Portfolio is a UCITS version of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, for investors outside the United States who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs.

The rules are unchanged: U.S. stocks, long Treasuries, gold and cash at 25% each, reset every January and whenever a sleeve drifts below 15% or above 35%. The full logic is on the Permanent Portfolio page. Because only the funds that hold each position change, the backtest is identical to the original's, month for month.

The UCITS Funds

RoleFundTicker (London, USD)GBP lineISIN
U.S. large cap (S&P 500)iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc)CSPXCSP1IE00B5BMR087
GoldiShares Physical Gold ETCIGLNSGLNIE00B4ND3602
Long TreasuriesiShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF (Acc)DTLAnoneIE00BFM6TC58
Short Treasuries (T-bills)iShares $ Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (Acc)IB01noneIE00BGSF1X88

How Closely the Funds Match

  • Same or near-identical index. For most positions the UCITS fund tracks the same index, or the same index family, as the US fund it replaces.
  • Cash is held as a US T-bill fund in US dollars.

Performance Highlights

January 1980 through September 2026, net of trading friction:

CAGRMax DrawdownUlcer IndexUPI
U-Permanent Portfolio+7.3%-15.7%3.170.99
Permanent Portfolio+7.3%-15.7%3.170.99
S&P 500+12.0%-51.0%12.720.61

The Ulcer Index measures how deep and how long drawdowns were, not just the single worst one: lower is better. UPI (Ulcer Performance Index) is return above T-bills per unit of Ulcer Index: higher is better.

Notes for Investors Outside the US

  • Results are in US dollars. The strategy is calculated on the history of the equivalent US funds, in US dollars. If you measure your portfolio in pounds, euros or another currency, your results will also move with the exchange rate.
  • Why UCITS funds. Irish-domiciled UCITS funds are the standard way for non-US investors to hold US markets. They often receive US dividends at a lower withholding rate than a non-US investor holding US-listed ETFs directly would, and they are not US assets for US estate tax purposes. Rules vary by country, so check with a tax adviser where you live.
  • Gold is held as an ETC. UCITS rules do not allow a fund that holds only gold, so gold is held through the iShares Physical Gold ETC, a security backed by physical gold. It is not a UCITS fund, but it is UCITS eligible and widely available to investors in the UK, Europe and elsewhere.
  • Listings. The tickers above are the London Stock Exchange USD lines unless noted. Most of the funds also trade in London in pounds and on European exchanges in euros, under the same ISIN, which is the surest way to find the right fund at any broker.

Who It's For

U-Permanent Portfolio is for investors outside the US who want the simplest, calmest allocation on the site and are happy to trade return for a mild ride, built from UCITS funds and a physical gold ETC.


Past performance, including backtested results, is not indicative of future results. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not reflect actual trading, and benefits from hindsight in the selection of strategy rules. U-Permanent Portfolio is calculated on the history of the equivalent US-listed funds; the UCITS funds track the same or closely matching indexes but their returns will differ, including from fees, tax treatment and currency. Portions of the long-term history rely on reconstructed proxy data for funds that did not exist for the full period. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.

For the latest details, visit www.DualMomentumSystems.com

Performance in detail

Growth of $10,000 (log scale)

Drawdown from previous high

Calendar-year returns

Selected range Jan 1980 to Sep 2026

PortfolioCAGRMax DDUlcerUPISortinoMAR
U-Permanent Portfolio7.3%-15.7%3.170.991.880.47
Permanent Portfolio7.3%-15.7%3.170.991.880.47
S&P 50012.0%-51.0%12.720.611.300.24
60/4010.0%-32.3%6.120.951.720.31

What the record shows

From Jan 1980 through Sep 2026, U-Permanent Portfolio compounded at 7.3% a year after trading costs. $10,000 invested at the start grew to about $274,925.

That is 0.0 points a year more than the Permanent Portfolio, its default benchmark, over the same months, and it trailed the Permanent Portfolio in all 5 decades in the record.

Its deepest decline was 15.7%, from a peak in Dec 2021 to a low in Sep 2022, and it was back to its old high by Mar 2024.

Return is only half the picture. The Ulcer Performance Index measures return against the depth and length of drawdowns, and on it U-Permanent Portfolio scores 0.99, essentially level with the Permanent Portfolio at 0.99.

In the 195 months the S&P 500 fell, U-Permanent Portfolio still made money in 32% of them.

Since 2000

The modern half of the record, with the dot-com bust, 2008, the long zero-rate decade and the 2022 rate shock all inside it.

Jan 2000 to Sep 2026CAGRMax DDUlcerUPISortinoMAR
U-Permanent Portfolio6.7%-15.7%3.341.451.700.43
Permanent Portfolio6.7%-15.7%3.341.451.700.43
S&P 5008.1%-51.0%15.890.390.880.16
60/406.6%-32.3%7.620.621.110.20

Return by decade

Annual return1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s*
U-Permanent Portfolio+9.0%+7.4%+6.4%+6.3%+7.7%
Permanent Portfolio+9.0%+7.4%+6.4%+6.3%+7.7%
S&P 500+17.0%+18.1%-1.0%+12.9%+15.3%
60/40+15.5%+14.0%+2.1%+9.4%+9.4%

* Partial decade, annualized over the months available.

Through the hard stretches

Total return over each period, start of the first month to the end of the last.

PeriodU-PPPermanentS&P 50060/40
1987 crashSep 1987 to Nov 1987-6.6%-6.6%-29.8%-17.7%
Dot-com bear marketSep 2000 to Sep 2002-0.5%-0.5%-44.8%-23.5%
Global financial crisisNov 2007 to Feb 2009-4.2%-4.2%-51.0%-32.3%
COVID crashFeb 2020 to Mar 2020-1.4%-1.4%-19.6%-11.9%
2022 rate shockJan 2022 to Dec 2022-12.2%-12.2%-18.2%-15.9%

How it behaves month to month

Since Jan 1980Worst 12 monthsPositive monthsPositive when S&P 500 fellCorrelation to S&P 500
U-Permanent Portfolio-13.9%62%32%0.59
Permanent Portfolio-13.9%62%32%0.59
60/40-27.5%67%10%0.98

Every figure is net of trading costs and computed from the same monthly data as the rest of the site, over the months all the portfolios shown have in common (Jan 1980 to Sep 2026). Returns before an ETF's launch come from a matching index, as explained in where the data comes from. Backtests are hypothetical and are not a promise of future results.