U-All Weather Overview
| CAGR | 8.6% |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -21.1% |
| MAR ratio | 0.41 |
| History | 46 years (561 months) |
U-All Weather is a UCITS version of the public, unlevered formulation of Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio, for investors outside the United States who buy UCITS funds rather than US-listed ETFs.
The rules are unchanged: 30% U.S. stocks, 40% long Treasuries, 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7.5% gold and 7.5% commodities, reset every January. The full logic is on the All Weather page. Because only the funds that hold each position change, the backtest is identical to the original's, month for month.
The UCITS Funds
| Role | Fund | Ticker (London, USD) | GBP line | ISIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. large cap (S&P 500) | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc) | CSPX | CSP1 | IE00B5BMR087 |
| Commodities | Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF (Acc) | CMOD | CMOP | IE00BD6FTQ80 |
| Gold | iShares Physical Gold ETC | IGLN | SGLN | IE00B4ND3602 |
| Long Treasuries | iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF (Acc) | DTLA | none | IE00BFM6TC58 |
| Intermediate Treasuries | iShares $ Treasury Bond 7-10yr UCITS ETF (Acc) | CBU0 | none | IE00B3VWN518 |
How Closely the Funds Match
- Same or near-identical index. For most positions the UCITS fund tracks the same index, or the same index family, as the US fund it replaces.
- Commodities are held through a Bloomberg Commodity index fund in place of the US fund's optimum-yield index, so returns will differ somewhat.
Performance Highlights
January 1980 through September 2026, net of trading friction:
| CAGR | Max Drawdown | Ulcer Index | UPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U-All Weather | +8.6% | -21.1% | 4.11 | 1.06 |
| All Weather | +8.6% | -21.1% | 4.11 | 1.06 |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | -51.0% | 12.72 | 0.61 |
The Ulcer Index measures how deep and how long drawdowns were, not just the single worst one: lower is better. UPI (Ulcer Performance Index) is return above T-bills per unit of Ulcer Index: higher is better.
Notes for Investors Outside the US
- Results are in US dollars. The strategy is calculated on the history of the equivalent US funds, in US dollars. If you measure your portfolio in pounds, euros or another currency, your results will also move with the exchange rate.
- Why UCITS funds. Irish-domiciled UCITS funds are the standard way for non-US investors to hold US markets. They often receive US dividends at a lower withholding rate than a non-US investor holding US-listed ETFs directly would, and they are not US assets for US estate tax purposes. Rules vary by country, so check with a tax adviser where you live.
- Gold is held as an ETC. UCITS rules do not allow a fund that holds only gold, so gold is held through the iShares Physical Gold ETC, a security backed by physical gold. It is not a UCITS fund, but it is UCITS eligible and widely available to investors in the UK, Europe and elsewhere.
- Listings. The tickers above are the London Stock Exchange USD lines unless noted. Most of the funds also trade in London in pounds and on European exchanges in euros, under the same ISIN, which is the surest way to find the right fund at any broker.
Who It's For
U-All Weather is for investors outside the US who want a fixed, unlevered allocation built to hold up across growth, deflation and inflation, built from UCITS funds and a physical gold ETC.
Past performance, including backtested results, is not indicative of future results. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not reflect actual trading, and benefits from hindsight in the selection of strategy rules. U-All Weather is calculated on the history of the equivalent US-listed funds; the UCITS funds track the same or closely matching indexes but their returns will differ, including from fees, tax treatment and currency. Portions of the long-term history rely on reconstructed proxy data for funds that did not exist for the full period. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.
For the latest details, visit www.DualMomentumSystems.com