Global Navigator 300 Strategy Overview

Global Navigator 300 is the most aggressive strategy published by Dual Momentum Systems. It differs from Global Navigator in two ways, not one, and the second is easy to miss:

1. During the recovery phase of a U.S. equity drawdown, the equity position is held through a 3x S&P 500 ETF (UPRO) instead of an unleveraged one.
2. In the first month of a defensive run, the Risk Off position is TMF, a 3x long Treasury fund, instead of the unleveraged EDV that the base strategy and Global Navigator 200 hold.

That second point means Global Navigator 300 is the only strategy in the DMS lineup that applies leverage to its defensive position. Everything else about the strategy is identical to the base version.

This page is about those two substitutions. The base strategy's three-step logic is on the Global Navigator page.

What the 300 means

Global Navigator is always 100% in a single position when it is Risk On, so substituting a 3x fund for the whole equity position triples the portfolio's notional exposure to 300%.

There are no sleeves here to dilute that. Triad 170 leverages one 35% sleeve and reaches 170% notional. Global Navigator 300 leverages everything it owns. When leverage is deployed, the entire portfolio is a 3x S&P 500 position.

Notional exposure is 100% whenever leverage is dormant, which is most of the time, and 300% when it is not.

How Smart Leverage decides

The equity module is identical to the one Global Navigator 200 uses. Only the fund differs.

Dormant. Nothing happens. The intended holding passes through untouched.

Armed. U.S. large cap has closed a month 10% or more below its highest prior month-end close. Arming and deploying cannot happen in the same month.

Deployed. Leverage deploys in the first month where U.S. large cap has better weighted-average momentum than T-bills and the strategy actually wants to own U.S. large cap. Smart Leverage sits downstream of the Risk On test and the regional rotation and cannot override either, so a 3x position is never held into a decline the base strategy had already exited.

The three exits

• Momentum turns. T-bills catch up to or pass U.S. large cap on the weighted-average measure.
• Any Risk Off month. The strategy leaves equities entirely and the leveraged position goes with it.
• The 13-month cap. No deployment runs longer than 13 consecutive months.

The cap matters more at 3x than at 2x. A leveraged fund tracks a daily multiple of its index, so its return over a long holding period depends on the path the index took, not only where it ended. Choppy, high-volatility markets erode a 3x position faster than a 2x one, and the effect compounds with time held. Capping every deployment at 13 months bounds that exposure by construction. The figure is 13 rather than 12 so a full-length deployment clears the one-year holding period for long-term capital gains treatment.

One trigger, one deployment

When a deployment ends, for any reason, the drawdown that armed it is spent. Only a fresh 10% drawdown from a new peak can arm it again. At 3x, that restraint is the difference between an overlay and a liability.

Prolonging the Magic

If the strategy rotates from U.S. to international while leverage is already deployed, the deployment survives and the leveraged position is held through the rotation. A regional preference flipping for a month or two is a wiggle, not a reason to unwind a committed recovery position.

A rotation to international while merely armed cancels the arm outright, and the module cannot re-arm until the strategy has passed through a Risk Off month. A drawdown that fired while the strategy preferred international is not a U.S. recovery.

The leveraged defensive month

This is the part of Global Navigator 300 that deserves the most attention, because it has no equivalent anywhere else in the lineup.

When the strategy goes Risk Off, the Treasury Duration Limiter picks what to retreat into. If long Treasuries are still trending positively, the first month of a defensive run holds a long-duration position: EDV for the base strategy and for Global Navigator 200, and TMF, a 3x long Treasury fund, for Global Navigator 300. From month two onward all three variants hold unleveraged TLT, and once the Duration Limiter fires, all three lock into short-duration BOXX for the remainder of the run.

So the leveraged defensive exposure is bounded: one month, and only when the Duration Limiter has not already fired. But within that month the portfolio holds three times the duration risk of the base strategy, at precisely the moment it has just decided equities are unsafe.

The case for it is that the first month of a defensive run is when a growth scare is most likely to produce a sharp Treasury rally, and the Duration Limiter's sign test is what prevents it happening during a rate shock. The case against it is that the sign test is backward-looking, and a month in which long Treasuries reverse hard is a month in which a 3x Treasury fund reverses three times as hard. Both are true. Decide accordingly.

Concentration

The base strategy holds a single ticker in about 67% of months; the leveraged variants do so in about 73%, because leverage collapses the two-position international pair into one leveraged U.S. position whenever it is deployed.

Combined with 300% notional, that means there are stretches where the entire portfolio is one 3x fund. Not a 3x sleeve. The whole thing.

What 3x costs

January 1980 through September 2026, net of trading friction:

	CAGR	Max Drawdown	MAR
Global Navigator	+13.9%	-23.1%	0.60
Global Navigator 200	+17.0%	-23.1%	0.74
Global Navigator 300	+21.3%	-24.0%	0.88
S&P 500	+12.0%	-51.0%	0.24

Two things are worth reading carefully here.

The base strategy and the 2x variant share a maximum drawdown because leverage was not deployed during the episode that produced it. The 3x variant's is about a point deeper, which is the only place in this table where the cost of leverage is directly visible.

And MAR improves as leverage rises, which is the opposite of what happens in the Triad family. The reason is structural: Global Navigator's leverage is applied only during recoveries the Risk On test has already validated, and it comes off entirely on any Risk Off month. That is a favorable historical record rather than a promise, and it rests on the Risk On test continuing to keep leverage away from sustained declines. A ratio improving is not the same as the experience improving. Holding a 3x position through a bad stretch is harder than holding an unleveraged one, whatever the ratio says afterward.

Who it is for

Global Navigator 300 suits an investor who already holds and understands the base strategy, is comfortable with the entire portfolio being a single leveraged fund for months at a time, has a long horizon, and has thought concretely about their own behavior during a drawdown rather than assuming they will be fine.

It is a poor fit if any of the following are true. You would not hold base Global Navigator on its own merits. You have not held a leveraged position through a drawdown before. You are uncomfortable with a leveraged Treasury position in the first defensive month. You are investing in a taxable account and are sensitive to short-term gains. Or you are drawn to the headline return without having read the section on the leveraged defensive month.

Global Navigator 200 runs the same equity module at 2x, holds an unleveraged defensive position throughout, and for most investors who want leverage on this strategy is the better starting point.

The base strategy in brief

Global Navigator asks two questions each month. Should this money be in equities at all, answered by comparing the stronger of U.S. and international equities against T-bills. And if so, which region, answered by relative momentum between them. When the answer to the first is no, the Treasury Duration Limiter decides what kind of safety to hold, stepping down to short duration when long Treasuries are themselves losing money and locking that choice for the rest of the defensive run.

The full rules are on the Global Navigator strategy page.

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Past performance, including backtested results, is not indicative of future results. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not reflect actual trading, and benefits from hindsight in the selection of strategy rules. Portions of the long-term history rely on reconstructed proxy data for funds that did not exist for the full period. Leveraged ETFs carry risks beyond those of their unleveraged counterparts, including the effect of daily rebalancing on returns over holding periods longer than one day. A 3x fund can lose value over an extended holding period even when its underlying index is flat, and this applies to leveraged Treasury funds as well as leveraged equity funds. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.

For the latest details, visit www.DualMomentumSystems.com