Profit Farmer
| CAGR | 26.2% |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -87.1% |
| MAR ratio | 0.30 |
| History | 35 years (428 months) |
Profit Farmer is a momentum-driven Adaptive Allocation strategy that rotates monthly among a small basket of 3x leveraged ETFs. Each month it ranks the universe by trailing two-month return, selects the strongest three, and weights them using Minimum Variance optimization - sizing each position to minimize the combined portfolio's expected volatility rather than splitting capital evenly. The optimizer works from a real daily-return covariance matrix rather than a simple inverse-volatility rule, which means the three holdings are rarely equal-sized and a selected asset can legitimately be sized to zero if it adds risk without adding diversification. The base universe is emerging markets (EDC), U.S. small cap (URTY), Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ), long-term Treasuries (TMF), and U.S. real estate (DRN), each 3x leveraged.
Profit Farmer is always invested. There is no absolute momentum test, no cash position, and no defensive sleeve - the strategy is fully deployed in three leveraged positions every month, and its only risk management is the momentum ranking itself and the volatility-aware sizing on top of it. Long-term Treasuries in the universe can be selected when equities weaken, but that is a consequence of the ranking rather than a deliberate exit to safety. Because the entire investable universe is built from 3x leveraged instruments, Profit Farmer carries substantially higher volatility and deeper drawdowns than an unleveraged momentum strategy. It is designed for investors who want amplified trend-following exposure, understand what daily-reset leverage does over a sustained decline, and are sizing it as a high-octane sleeve within a broader plan rather than as a core holding.
Profit Farmer w/Gold runs the identical engine on an expanded universe, adding 3x leveraged gold (SHNY) as a sixth candidate. It still holds three positions, now selected from six rather than five. Lookback, weighting method, and rebalance cadence are unchanged. The addition gives the ranking a genuine non-equity, non-duration alternative to reach for in periods when both stocks and bonds are weak, which is the specific environment the base universe has the least to offer in.