Falcon
| CAGR | 11.0% |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -10.9% |
| MAR ratio | 1.01 |
| History | 46 years (560 months) |
Falcon can be thought of as a hedge fund adaptation of the Permanent Portfolio DMS. The Permanent Portfolio balances four economic regimes - prosperity, recession, inflation, deflation - using directional assets, and does it with a purist's simplicity that has held up for decades. Falcon keeps the philosophy and replaces the instruments. Instead of four directional asset classes, it holds four internally adaptive, dynamically managed return streams: risk parity, global macro, long/short equity, and managed futures. Each sleeve is doing its own diversification work inside the fund before Falcon ever combines them, which is a fundamentally more forward-looking way to build an all-weather portfolio than fixing the exposures yourself and hoping the regimes cooperate.
The allocation is a risk-parity core with three alternative satellites:
- Risk Parity (ALLW), 55% - the engine. Balances exposure by risk contribution rather than dollars, so no single asset class dominates the portfolio's outcome the way equities dominate a conventional balanced fund.
- Global Macro (HFGM), 15% - discretionary and systematic positioning across currencies, rates, and commodities. Its returns come from a different place than anything else in the portfolio.
- Long/Short Equity (CLSE), 15% - equity exposure with the ability to be short, which is what lets an equity sleeve contribute in a market that is falling rather than merely losing less.
- Managed Futures (DBMF), 15% - trend following across a broad futures universe. This is the sleeve that has historically done its best work in exactly the extended, grinding declines that hurt everything else.
Falcon is built to "sleep-well." Three of its four sleeves are there specifically because they have a history of zigging when equities zag, which is why the strategy has the potential to flourish in prolonged deep drawdowns like 2008 rather than simply enduring them. The trade-off is the one every genuinely diversified portfolio makes: in a strong, sustained equity bull market it will not keep pace with a stock-heavy allocation, and it is not designed to.
Mechanically it is deliberately minimal. The allocation is fixed, there are no momentum signals, no regime detection, and no defensive switch to cash or Treasuries. Falcon rebalances back to its target weights once a year, in January, and lets the sleeves drift with their own returns for the eleven months in between. There is nothing to monitor and nothing to decide between Januaries, which is the part of the Permanent Portfolio's appeal that Falcon preserves most faithfully.